Monday, February 24, 2014

War: One thing that can cause major change more quickly

Here we try to keep an eye out for anything that can impact change in the monetary system. History has shown that war can be one thing that causes change. A war involving major powers creates crisis like conditions. Crisis like conditions can lead to change. Right now the situation in the Ukraine will bear watching.

The conflict in the Ukraine seems far away to most people in the West, especially the US. I doubt most people here are even aware anything is going on. In Russia things are quite different. They see this as a direct threat to Russian security. They are issuing statements that the US is behind the revolt that has now thrown the country into turmoil. Here is one article reflecting the Russian viewpoint. There is talk the country may split into two parts.

The western news media is mostly projecting the story that the revolt is a victory for the people in overthrowing a corrupt government that will lead to closer ties with the EU. The background to all this seems to be a below the surface battle that has been going on between the EU (and US quietly) and Russia over influence in the Ukraine. There are important gas lines that move through the Ukraine and into Europe for one thing.

Interestingly, former Asst. US Treasurer Paul Craig Roberts has written a very provocative article on this situation. Since he is an insider with significant contacts, we always have to pay attention to his comments. This article clearly illustrates how he is not afraid to ruffle feathers. He attacks the US position here with some scathing comments towards the Obama Adminstration handling of the situation.

This is consistent with his long held views that the "neo conservatives" in Washington are a problem rather than a solution (he says National Security Adviser Susan Rice is a neo conservative).He held this same view during the G.W. Bush Administration in oppostion to the war in Iraq. The point is that he is not partisan in his views on this topic. He criticizes both sides with equal force. This article is very intense and suggests the possibility it could escalate into nuclear war. This seems extreme to us, but because of the source we cannot just ignore the warning completely. His article does clearly illustrate how both sides are taking this conflict seriously.

my comments: We won't take a position on this topic here because we lack information to discuss the topic intelligently. It does matter though how both sides of this perceive the situation. This is a small regional conflict right now. But with major (nuclear) super powers involved and Russia feeling threatened, it could escalate. If it were to escalate it could lead to crisis conditions. Crisis conditions can lead to changes. So we will keep an eye on this to see if it escalates into something big enough to impact the global economic situation. If major war erupts, that may be the least of our concerns.

No comments:

Post a Comment