Thursday, February 12, 2015

2015 - Year of the Next Big Crisis or Just more of the Same?

If you follow the topic of potential monetary system change (which is what we do here) you know that things are heating up in a number of areas that could lead to monetary system change. We are seeing high market volatility, currencies collapsing or surging in uncontrolled fashion (Russia, Brazil, Euro vs. Swiss franc, Venzuela, the Ukraine), gold is showing unusual strength given that the US dollar has been in a very strong rally, and there are urgent debt problems many places with Greece and Ukraine in the spotlight right now.  And then there is the over 50% rapid drop in the price of oil. Who knows what derivatives problems may have already been triggered by all this volatility? I doubt anyone knows for sure.

All this action has put those who do follow this topic on alert. Some very respected and prominent people are saying they believe that in 2015 we will see the next big global financial crisis even as the US Fed seems to think things are improving. The IMF is kind of in the middle. They do not want to say anything to suggest to the public that a crisis is imminent, but they do constantly issue reports and warnings that the conditions for one are present. So does the BIS (Bank for International Settlements).

Of course Jim Rickards is on record predicting another big crisis, but his most recent comments suggest he does not necessarily think the crisis will unfold rapidly. With all the conflicting information and opinion, how do we assess whether or not a crisis will unfold in 2015? The only way we can. We will look at a variety of credible viewpoints and readers can decide for themselves. Below are links to those alternative views with a brief summary comment below each link.

We have already provided a link to Jim Rickards latest article where he suggests that the next crisis (and a drop in the value of the US dollar) may unfold over a longer period of time instead of suddenly. More like a slow motion train wreck.

Here are links to a variety of respected people who are openly saying they believe we will not get through 2015-2016 without a new crisis. This is just a sample of what you can easily find out there:

Bill Holter in an interview with Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog 
- places the odds at 60 to 70% that we will get a crisis in 2015.

Eric Sprott in an interview with King World News 
- says a derivatives crisis is already underway, but has not yet been made public.

Egon Von Greyerz in an interview with King World News - world is on the cusp of chaos

Jim Sinclair reposts his warning that a systemic crisis is near - recommends moving your assets out of the system

Chinese Rating Agency - World Heading for Crisis worse than 2008 (exact time frame not given)

International Institute for Management Development - Meltdown 2015?

Jacques Attali (European Bank for Reconstruction) - The next crisis in 2015?

Many analysts are pointing out that 2015 is a seven year cycle from the last crisis in 2008 and also note that seven year cycles have mattered up in the past. Bo Polny actually bases his forecasts on these kinds of cycles.

On the other hand, the US Fed and most mainstream financial media in the US are painting a much different picture. They say that a recovery in the US is picking up steam. They say things are going well enough that the Fed can start raising interest rates later this year. They cite improved jobs reports and some other economic indicators as evidence. Critics/cynics say the economic reports are misleading and do not reflect an actual recovery. 

So, what is going to happen in 2015? 

Will we get the next big financial crisis or will we just get more of the same that we have had for the last several years? If there is a crisis, will it unfold quickly (days/weeks) or over a long period of time (months/years)?   Readers can decide for themselves.

There is a way to deal with an uncertain future. It's really just common sense. Hope for the best, but make preparations for the worst. It's how we deal with uncertainty and risk everyday. If you own a home, you get some insurance to protect against the worst case and then hope you never use it. You stay informed to know if you have the proper amount of insurance for your situation. If things change, you stay alert and adjust your insurance plan.

There is no reason to view uncertainty about the future of the present monetary system any differently. Stay informed and alert. Make an insurance plan that fits your situation. Adjust the plan as conditions change. Don't spend every day worrying about things you cannot control. We will try to help out with the staying informed and alert part here.

Added note: There is news out this morning that a cease fire agreement has been reached for the Ukraine. This is a story we need to explore more in depth and also ties in to how the conflict with Greece and the EU is resolved. We will have more on this coming this weekend after the final results for the Ukraine are in. What happens in Greece and the Ukraine are early hints as to how things may go in regards to monetary system change. We will look at that as well.

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