Wednesday, April 20, 2016

What Can We Learn from the US Political Results So Far

We are now far enough into the primary election process to get a pretty good feel for what the general mood is among voters in the US. While this blog has no political agenda and is not interested in endorsing any candidates, we can learn some things about what the public mood may indicate in terms of the potential for major change to take place. Below are some observations along those lines.


- the US public is completely divided and has now splintered into three main groups as I see it.

1) the establishment that prefers the status quo and elite control of government policy (this is probably the smallest of the three groups right now and would tend to vote for Hillary Clinton for President or John Kasich on the Republican side).

2) voters who are totally disgusted with the elite control of the system and do not trust government to solve most problems (or other agencies such as the Federal Reserve). This group is growing and very large now and would make up the voters now voting for both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

3) voters who are disgusted with elite control of the system who don't trust the current leaders to make the system more equitable and fair as they would see things. This is the group of voters now strongly supporting Bernie Sanders. 

-  Of course someone will emerge victorious from all this and will probably do so without actually having a majority of the country agreeing with them even if they win. This will make the job of the next US President extremely difficult no matter who wins.

- despite all the drama at the Presidential level, the Congress is likely to stay pretty much as it is now except it is possible the Democrats could retake the US Senate. 

- we can expect that the US will continue to have divided government and that we won't see much change from how things have been politically for the last decade or so. The public is so splintered now that even if one party happens to get a temporary advantage in one election cycle, it is unlikely they can hold on to it beyond that because there is not voting block coalition in the US that is anywhere near 50% on a consistent basis.

- all of this means that the most likely future scenario for major fiscal policy change is a continuation of the status quo meaning no real solutions of any kind for the unsustainable debt problem long term until some kind of crisis forces the issue. 

Bottom line: The US election cycle this year will probably create a lot of emotion and drama, but very little real change long term in regards to the big issues that can impact financial stability and monetary system change. The race for President will draw all kinds of attention and be like a circus for the public, but will not result in any meaningful change going forward after all the dust clears. Until a genuine financial crisis emerges that truly shakes the stability of the financial system, major change is unlikely. If we get something like that before this election in November, all bets are off and all kinds of change might take place.

Added note: Donald Trump is already on record saying the stock market is in a bubbleNow Ted Cruz joins in and says we will see a stock crash due to Fed policy and that we need to return to a "rules based system" that includes gold.

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