Friday, October 21, 2016

Could the US and Russia Trigger a Crisis?

Readers here know that we have reached the conclusion that there are basically two key things we watch for here on this blog. One is another major financial crisis along the lines Jim Rickards is predicting. The other is what the response is to the crisis if we get one.

Lately, the news is filled with headlines suggesting that relations between the US and Russia are the worst since The Cold War. Even mainstream media are promoting the idea that various forms of increased conflict could happen such as a cyber attack by either nation on the other. Obviously, any kind of serious conflict between the US and Russia (cyber war or real war) could trigger the kind of crisis we watch for here. So, what are we to make of all these headlines?

Unfortunately, there is no easy answer to this question for those of us not inside the system. There is no doubt that a real and serious conflict between the US and Russia of any kind could ramp up instability even more in the global financial system. But how do we know if what we see in news headlines is real or just disinformation promoted by intelligence agencies from either nation (or both)? The answer to that is simple. We don't and can't know. Intelligence agencies are masters at creating public confusion and will certainly use the major media sources to promote whatever they want to be promoted to the general public. What are the possible options for us to consider? Here is my bullet point list:

- US and Russian relations really are very poor now and this could lead to a ramp up of conflict between the two in the coming weeks and months (anything from cyber war to real war). In other words, it's not just a big show and the potential for a conflict is real.

- US and Russian relations are not good, but not as bad as media reports suggest. Both sides are using the media to wage more of a PR war than a real war (at least for now).

- the media reports of worsening relations are being purposely overblown by either or both sides for some reason (to accomplish unknown agendas they do not wish to make public). For example, perhaps to influence the upcoming US election.

- the reports of conflict are intended to prepare the general public for a coming crisis (perhaps a financial crisis). One side or both sides view it as in their interest for the public to blame the conflict for the crisis for whatever reason.

By no means do I have any idea what the true situation is here. Like everyone on the outside of the system, all I can do is observe what happens and what is reported and then try to form an opinion on what the true situation is and how to react to it.

I can say that I recently ran this issue by sources I view as credible. The input I received was that they take this situation (danger) seriously, but believe the prospects for a real conflict are more tied to one side or the other making a mistake (like a miscalculation) than either side intending to ramp things up into a serious conflict. 

What this does do is just confirm once again is that we live in times where it is critical to stay alert and informed and have some kind of a backup plan in mind in case some kind of worst case scenario were to unfold. Russia is basically mandating that their public prepare for a worst case scenario. The US seems more focused on trying to influence US public opinion against Russia than to suggest US citizens should expect a serious conflict. In these times, it is just wise to have some kind of plan in mind even if you never need to use it.

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