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Thursday, November 10, 2022

Did the US Election Open the Door for Change?

The short answer is no.

Not much new to report here. The US midterm elections were basically another tie just confirming that the public is split 50-50 which is not news. It's been that way for some time in the US. The slight shift towards the Republicans in Congress will mean the nationalists do have a bit more leverage if House of Representatives does fall under Republican control as expected (they are expected to have a 5-10 seat majority as this is written). 

The Republican side of the House did become significantly more nationalistic, so that is more of what changed than the actual numbers in terms of seats held by the Republican party. Several of the incoming new Senators are also more nationalistic than the people they are replacing, so the Senate will also move a bit more nationalistic. 

I don't expect any of these election results to provide any impetus for major change in the monetary system any time soon. The more likely result is just continued gridlock and no desire for major changes to the status quo in the monetary system. 

As we have said here for quite some time now, the only force for major change out there that we can see is a major implosion/collapse of the present monetary system. That would force some kind of major change. It's impossible to forecast what that change might look like with neither political party having complete control. It's anyone's guess as to who the public would blame for all the pain that would come with such a collapse. For that reason, I would expect both parties to continue to just try to keep the present system wobbling along and do their best to avoid a major negative event. 

Not much else to report. If I see something changing, I'll add a post here.

Final post election update 11-17-22: It's now confirmed the US is returning back to divided government and probably a lot of gridlock over the next two years. None of that suggests the people vying for political control will have much interest in making major changes to the current monetary system. It's still unclear who the public might blame if the current system just imploded in that time frame for any reason. Usually, whoever is President during such an event gets most of the blame whether deserved or not. It does matter because it will determine who the public trusts to move forward after a major negative economic event. So, we likely either get two more years of not much happening or a major political realignment away from whoever is blamed for any major negative event if that takes place. There is nothing to suggest US policy designed to maintain global reserve currency status for the US dollar will change if no major economic events disrupt the present system. That means likely nothing here to report again for some time.