The purpose of this blog is primarily to monitor current events and watch for anything that might have the potential to disrupt the present US dollar centered fiat currency system. Nothing has changed much from what has been posted here for a long time so there is really no need to post often. But we are at the mid point in a US election year, so this post will attempt summarize anything out there that might potentially disrupt the current system. This is important to follow because any such disruption will certainly directly impact all of our lives.
With that introduction below I will just list the issues to be aware of. This is my most updated list. It is based on both my own research monitoring current events along with direct input from some of the experts I hear from by email and that have been featured on this blog over the years. These are experts who have the best chance of knowing what is going on. I work very hard to sort out what I believe are the most reliable sources before posting anything here. Of course no one knows everything or is always right.
Here are the top two issues I am aware of with potential to disrupt our present monetary system. The first one is more likely to have a shorter time frame than the second one.
-the US/West confrontation with Russia and it's other BRICS+ partners. This is the most serious threat I know of right now because of the continuing escalation by the US/West of various financial sanctions against Russia. The most recent escalation was the G7 announcement to seize the interest from frozen Russian assets and use it for US/NATO purposes. Jim Rickards views this as the most potentially disruptive current event, especially if Russia responds by seizing Western assets and/or initiates a legal action against the Euroclear platform where most of the frozen Russian assets reside. Jim says Russia could lock up this $40 Trillion system with a legal action filed in a jurisdiction more favorable to Russia (like say Hong Kong). Obviously, anything like that could be very disruptive. So this is a situation to monitor closely.
-the "De-Dollarization" movement underway in the BRICS+ nations. Basically this is another reaction to the US using sanctions in a weaponized fashion. Nations see that the US is willing to abandon long held norms in the global monetary system and use severe sanctions to punish other nations. The most obvious recent example being Russia. This inspires a counter movement to try and find ways to bypass the US dollar based system and the SWIFT payment system. Jim Rickards has a recent article that talks about the current status of that movement. Currently, Jim thinks this process will take some time to fully play out, but the next major event to monitor will be the BRICS+ meetings held this fall in Russia. It is possible some kind of announcement of a competing payments and trading system could take place. It is possible the new BRICS+ currency could be based on something called The Unit (described in this article). Note that Jim references The Unit in his article linked above. Anything that bypasses the current US dollar based system is a potential threat to be disruptive. But if it phases in gradually over time, it may be less disruptive.
A question that might be asked is: Will the US election results have a potential to disrupt the present monetary system?
The answer is yes, but very hard to quantify in terms of degree of impact or the timing of any such impact. Earlier on this blog we outlined how we view the current global power struggle that is ongoing. It's not really as much political parties fighting for power so much as it is a global vision for how the future should unfold between two very powerful opponents.
On one side we have what we will call the establishment power base attempting to push forward what is called a "globalist vision" for the future. On the other side we have the "nationalist/populist" opposition to the globalist vision for the future. In the US, this power struggle surfaces in the form of a Trump led Republican party vs. an increasingly progressive left Democrat party. It's actually more complicated than that because there are pro globalist Republicans and a few nationalist Democrats, but this is the surface power struggle (Trump/populists vs. Dems/globalists) the public will see in the upcoming election this November.
So the question is will one side emerge powerful enough to push forward their agenda and if so will their agenda involve major changes to the existing monetary system?
These are really impossible questions to answer. First we have to see if one side or the other emerges in a more powerful position since they have been pretty much grid locked for a long time. It's always possible in any election something could shift in power leverage, but it is just as possible that neither side gains much advantage and things just stay mostly grid locked.
Then if one side does gain enough additional political power to move forward an agenda, will that agenda include any major changes or reform to the present monetary system? Again, an impossible question to answer right now.
Our take here has been and continues to be that until something forces the present system to make major changes, inertia is most likely to prevail and the present system will just continue to limp along. Despite massive problems in the present monetary system, an uncontrolled major collapse or failure will result in enormous hardship to pretty much everyone and the public will be angry and looking for who to blame. No one involved the big power struggle wants to take the risk of being held responsible by the general public for all the hardship a systemic failure will bring about.
So our take here is that the grid lock in the power struggle combined with the fear of being blamed for any major systemic failure creates an incentive for the present system to just struggle along until it literally cannot continue to function. Central banks have enormous power to intervene to try and assist the present system and step in to "ring fence" any major failures in the system. They have unlimited power to create money and inject it where needed in a crisis. So we would expect all that to continue unless something happens that is out of the control of those who run the present monetary system. Something that catches them by surprise or is just too overwhelming to prevent (like an overnight derivatives meltdown), even with all the power they have to create money.
If I had to offer advice on the best public source to follow to monitor all this, I would say to follow Jim Rickards public interviews or subscribe to his newsletter if you can afford it. Jim is the most plugged in source I know right now to what is going on with the two key issues listed above. He also provides regular free updates to the public in various interviews. Just follow his X account to find links to his interviews (example here). His newsletter is not expensive, but I know some will not be able to afford that. Input I get from Jim by email is very helpful to sorting out various information we have coming at us from all directions these days and helps inform some things I post here along with input from some other similar high credibility experts.
Of course if we learn of something that could disrupt the present system, we will post about it here. But in the current environment, with so many sources of potential instability in play, things could always happen quickly and by surprise. So Jim is the best source we can recommend to stay as up to date as possible on the most critical issues right now.
Summary: Things tend to stay the same until something forces change to take place. Try to monitor events and prepare for any surprises that might arise at any time.
Added note 7-6-2024: This is the latest public interview with Jim Rickards for those interested. Jim lays out the current global power struggle as globalist vs. nationalist as we have done here for some time. The main point is that a lot of the old political labels and terms are not as relevant in this new power struggle paradigm (left vs. right - Democrat vs. Republican, etc). So it's important to understand the real power struggle that is ongoing (nationalist vs. globalist). Whoever controls the monetary system and how money is distributed will set the future agenda. That's why it's the focus of this blog.
Added note 8-21-2024: This is Jim Rickards latest update interview on the election, geo politics, etc. Nothing is this interview changes the analysis presented in the post above. So lots of unusual events have taken place since this was posted, but the analysis remains unchanged at this time.