Where are Things Headed Now?

Now that the results of the US election are in and we are seeing the new Trump Administration start to take shape, we can try to assess where things may be headed. If you frame the political battle as nationalists/populists vs. internationalists/globalists as I do, of course the nationalist populist view prevailed in this election. I believe this is the more accurate way to analyze the two competing power factions rather based on one political party vs. another political party. Although, it is true that at this point the nationalist populist agenda is supported by a solid majority of the Trump led Republican party and the internationalist globalist agenda is supported by the now much more progressive based Democrat party.

With that as our basis for analysis, what might we expect to unfold that could impact the monetary system during this new Trump Administration? The easiest way to look at this is probably just in a Q&A format.

The Trump/nationalist/populist agenda calls for dismantling the so called "deep state" or "draining the swamp" as some like to say. What can we expect to happen related to that agenda?

Based on what I see so far, it appears President elect Trump is determined to surround himself with people loyal to him personally and his "America First" agenda. In Trump's first term, we heard a lot rhetoric and hyperbole about "draining the swamp" and "dismantling the deep state". The reality was quite different. 

Trump spent most of his first term on the defensive and having to overcome many of his own appointees not seriously pursuing his stated agenda or even turning against him. So, we should expect that this will continue until proven otherwise. Those who oppose Trump's agenda are likely going to do everything they can to prevent him from moving it forward. I'd expect him to win some battles and lose some battles, but the basic power structure to remain mostly in place (not dismantled). We can expect a Trump Administration to tout any reduction in "deep state" power as being game changing. But will it really be? We probably won't know until six to nine months into his term. I'd expect more of ongoing stalemate until we see proof otherwise. We'll see what happens.

Will a Trump Administration seriously challenge the monetary and financial system status quo? 

If you follow some of the strongest core Trump supporters, you will hear them talking about things like ending the Federal Reserve or the US bringing back a monetary system more based on "sound money". However, based upon what Trump and his first round of new appointees are saying, nothing like that appears to be on the agenda. 

What we hear being said is that the plan is to support the current US fiat dollar based system by creating enough growth to just continue to sustain rolling over the massive US debt at least another four years. In other words, just more of the status quo with some fringe reductions to spending here and there in some government programs. In a recent Fox Business article , the nominee for Secretary of the Treasury (Scott Bessent) stated the economic plan is 3-3-3 meaning 3% GDP growth, a reduction of  annual deficit to 3% of GDP, and a 3 million barrel a day growth in US oil production. 

So this is just the "we can grow our way out of the problem" approach under the current system and not any kind of major system overhaul. On top of that he stated that this Administration won't be able to deal with the largest areas of government spending (entitlements) at all and will just have to leave that up to the next Administration. This hardly sounds like any kind of revolutionary upheaval to the present system. It sounds like the plan is to grow enough to keep rolling over the debt another 4 years and then it will be someone else's problem. Until proven otherwise, we should not expect major monetary system changes. Here is the relevant quote from the article above.

"These entitlements are massive. I think the next four years isn't the time to deal with them, that we've got to deal with the discretionary portion of the budget and get that under control. But I think the signal – I always say, crawl, walk, run – we've got to crawl, maybe walk our way to get the current deficits under control, then the next step is for a future administration to have the confidence to be able to deal with entitlements," Bessent said. (article is on Fox Business and may not be accessible from the link above).

Will Congress work with the Trump Administration to make major systemic changes either in government or to the US financial system?

Early indications are that the new Congress will probably pass some of the "easy" things the Trump Administration wants like extension of the previous tax cuts enacted in 2017 and child care tax credit increases, etc. Both the House and the Senate are creating committees said to be ready to work with the unofficial D.O.G.E. led by Elon Musk to make substantial spending cuts (in the trillions according to Musk). So, we just need to watch and see where this goes. Things like this have been talked about for years, but nothing major ever really happens. Will this time be different? We'll just have to see. 

We already have the incoming Secretary of the Treasury saying the biggest area of spending (entitlements) is off the table (see above). We can expect all kinds of efforts by Administration opponents to block any kind of really significant government spending cuts. In the past, these simply never happen after a lot of rhetoric and hyperbole about it from the Republican party. The Senate has already positioned the more "anti Trump" Republican Senators in some of the key spots that determine what goes on in the Senate.

Musk has zero authority to actually cut anything, so he will be fully dependent upon Congress (including the Senate) for that. Will anything major really happen or will this end up just being a big PR campaign where any minor cuts will be proclaimed as a major overhaul to the system? Until proven otherwise, history tells us we won't see any real meaningful permanent changes to the system. Politicians love to tout relatively minor achievements (in the big picture of the longer term) as something "historic in nature". In reality, many things they do are quickly reversed once they leave office. But the one constant is the Administrative State which stays in place permanently while politicians come and go.

We'll see if it is "different this time".

Bottom line: The first Trump term was mostly a lot of bark and very little bite in terms of any major changes to the existing system and power structure. Will this second term be different? HIstory says probably not, but we'll see what happens.

Added note 12-1-2024: Trump Issues Tariff Threat to Protect US Dollar and here is Jim Rickards reaction to this threat.

Will the US Election Result Impact the Monetary System?

Now that the US election is over it's reasonable to ask if the result will spur any major change to the existing monetary system. For now, there is nothing to suggest any major changes are on the immediate horizon. Neither candidate really discussed the issue at all and every public comment I heard from President elect Trump implied the existing US dollar fiat based monetary system will just plod along. 

The US national debt continues to explode upward and all the risks to the present monetary system we have identified and discussed here remain in place. So, any new major financial crisis that destabilizes the current system could always force some kind of major systemic change. But absent that situation, it appears the new Trump Administration has no urgent plans to push for any major change.

The one ongoing global event we have discussed here with potential to impact the US dollar based system may actually diminish as a trigger for major change now. The BRICS, mostly encouraged by Russia and Brazil, have been working towards an alternative to the US dollar based monetary system and the SWIFT payment system. While they will continue forward with that initiative, a sense of urgency to use it as a counter to the US dollar may no longer exist. The main reason for this alternative was the US weaponization of the US dollar and SWIFT system imposing sanctions on Russia (and others) related to the war in the Ukraine. If Trump follows through on his promise to negotiate an end to the war, the sanctions likely would be dropped as part of the process. So, the urgency for a system to bypass the US dollar may subside. I'm sure they'll keep working on it to have something in place for the future if needed, but if sanctions are dropped, the urgency for implementing it soon will probably diminish..

As always. we'll continue to monitor events If anything surfaces to suggest major change could happen, we'll report it. 

What if Neither Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is the Next President?

With the US election coming up on the horizon there is still no indication that anything significant is going to change soon in the monetary system. That's the main topic this blog follows. However, since the election outcome will be of interest for most people and the outcome could eventually impact the monetary system, here is a potential election outcome scenario you won't see discussed very many places. 

This scenario comes from Jim Rickards who admits this would be a strange and totally unexpected outcome for most everyone. But he does view it as potentially possible and I can't rule it out since things just as strange have been going on in US politics quite often lately. Basically it involves Trump winning the race in the electoral votes, but the Democrats winning the House of Representatives. If that were to happen, some Democrats have threatened to pass a resolution in the newly elected House (just before the election would be certified on (1-6-2025) to declare Donald Trump an insurrectionist. If passed, that would disqualify Trump to be certified as President despite winning the electoral votes to become President. 

Since no candidate would then have the 270 electoral votes to be certified as President, the House then decides it under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution. The House can only vote for a candidate who received electoral votes so if the House met they would have to vote for Harris as President. However, a reasonable assumption is that Republicans in the House would likely revolt if this were attempted and refuse to meet to certify, denying the House a quorum. That means no one would be certified as President until the House changed it's mind and resolved things. Jim Rickards explains all this in some detail in this recent interview.

Based on this potential outcome there are some questions that come to mind very quickly:

Who becomes President if this were to happen? 

JD Vance would become acting President under this scenario until the matter was resolved in the House. 

What would prevent this from happening?

If the Republicans maintain control of the House, this will not happen. We can also assume that litigation would ensue likely going all the way to the Supreme Court over any resolution declaring Trump to be an insurrectionist. The Supreme Court could rule in Trump's favor eventually. That of course would take some time.

Who would become the VP if JD Vance became Acting President?

I asked Jim this question directly and he informed me Vance would serve as both Acting President and the VP until the House resolved the matter.

Bottom line: Jim Rickards believes there is a good chance the US election will not get resolved until 2025. That would be prevented if either candidate wins more than 270 electoral votes and no one attempts to challenge the outcome. If either party wins both the White House and the House of Representatives, this scenario likely will not happen. Markets may react to the uncertainty in a poor way if this scenario does unfold. There is still no indication major fundamental monetary system change would take place soon regardless. 

Update 10-30-2024: In a new video today intended for his newsletter subscribers, Jim altered his election forecast as described above. He is now projecting a comfortable Trump win and also that the Republicans will hold the House of Representatives based on how the election is trending. So, this would mean there would be no bill passed to declare Trump an insurrectionist under that scenario. He bases this on a combination of his own forecast models and the fact that large amounts of investment dollars are flowing into certain stocks that would benefit from a Trump win. Nothing he presented today would suggest any major change to the present momentary system soon regardless of who wins the election.

Update 11-07-2024: With the election results now in, Jim did hit his forecast again this year. We'll have to see if the results impact the monetary system, but I have not seen anything from Trump indicating he plans any kind of major change. Likely just more of the same as we have had, at least for now.

Mid Year Review - Is there anything that can disrupt the present monetary system?

The purpose of this blog is primarily to monitor current events and watch for anything that might have the potential to disrupt the present US dollar centered fiat currency system. Nothing has changed much from what has been posted here for a long time so there is really no need to post often. But we are at the mid point in a US election year, so this post will attempt summarize anything out there that might potentially disrupt the current system. This is important to follow because any such disruption will certainly directly impact all of our lives. 

With that introduction below I will just list the issues to be aware of. This is my most updated list. It is based on both my own research monitoring current events along with direct input from some of the experts I hear from by email and that have been featured on this blog over the years. These are experts who have the best chance of knowing what is going on. I work very hard to sort out what I believe are the most reliable sources before posting anything here. Of course no one knows everything or is always right.

Here are the top two issues I am aware of with potential to disrupt our present monetary system. The first one is more likely to have a shorter time frame than the second one.

-the US/West confrontation with Russia and it's other BRICS+ partners. This is the most serious threat I know of right now because of the continuing escalation by the US/West of various financial sanctions against Russia. The most recent escalation was the G7 announcement to seize the interest from frozen Russian assets and use it for US/NATO purposes. Jim Rickards views this as the most potentially disruptive current event, especially if Russia responds by seizing Western assets and/or initiates a legal action against the Euroclear platform where most of the frozen Russian assets reside. Jim says Russia could lock up this $40 Trillion system with a legal action filed in a jurisdiction more favorable to Russia (like say Hong Kong). Obviously, anything like that could be very disruptive. So this is a situation to monitor closely.

-the "De-Dollarization" movement underway in the BRICS+ nations. Basically this is another reaction to the US using sanctions in a weaponized fashion. Nations see that the US is willing to abandon long held norms in the global monetary system and use severe sanctions to punish other nations. The most obvious recent example being Russia. This inspires a counter movement to try and find ways to bypass the US dollar based system and the SWIFT payment system. Jim Rickards has a recent article that talks about the current status of that movement. Currently, Jim thinks this process will take some time to fully play out, but the next major event to monitor will be the BRICS+ meetings held this fall in Russia. It is possible some kind of announcement of a competing payments and trading system could take place. It is possible the new BRICS+ currency could be based on something called The Unit (described in this article). Note that Jim references The Unit in his article linked above. Anything that bypasses the current US dollar based system is a potential threat to be disruptive. But if it phases in gradually over time, it may be less disruptive.

A question that might be asked is: Will the US election results have a potential to disrupt the present monetary system?

The answer is yes, but very hard to quantify in terms of degree of impact or the timing of any such impact. Earlier on this blog we outlined how we view the current global power struggle that is ongoing. It's not really as much political parties fighting for power so much as it is a global vision for how the future should unfold between two very powerful opponents.

On one side we have what we will call the establishment power base attempting to push forward what is called a "globalist vision" for the future. On the other side we have the "nationalist/populist" opposition to the globalist vision for the future. In the US, this power struggle surfaces in the form of a Trump led Republican party vs. an increasingly progressive left Democrat party. It's actually more complicated than that because there are pro globalist Republicans and a few nationalist Democrats, but this is the surface power struggle (Trump/populists vs. Dems/globalists) the public will see in the upcoming election this November. 

So the question is will one side emerge powerful enough to push forward their agenda and  if so will their agenda involve major changes to the existing monetary system?

These are really impossible questions to answer. First we have to see if one side or the other emerges in a more powerful position since they have been pretty much grid locked for a long time. It's always possible in any election something could shift in power leverage, but it is just as possible that neither side gains much advantage and things just stay mostly grid locked. 

Then if one side does gain enough additional political power to move forward an agenda, will that agenda include any major changes or reform to the present monetary system? Again, an impossible question to answer right now.

Our take here has been and continues to be that until something forces the present system to make major changes, inertia is most likely to prevail and the present system will just continue to limp along. Despite massive problems in the present monetary system, an uncontrolled major collapse or failure will result in enormous hardship to pretty much everyone and the public will be angry and looking for who to blame. No one involved the big power struggle wants to take the risk of being held responsible by the general public for all the hardship a systemic failure will bring about. 

So our take here is that the grid lock in the power struggle combined with the fear of being blamed for any major systemic failure creates an incentive for the present system to just struggle along until it literally cannot continue to function. Central banks have enormous power to intervene to try and assist the present system and step in to "ring fence" any major failures in the system. They have unlimited power to create money and inject it where needed in a crisis. So we would expect all that to continue unless something happens that is out of the control of those who run the present monetary system. Something that catches them by surprise or is just too overwhelming to prevent (like an overnight derivatives meltdown), even with all the power they have to create money.

If I had to offer advice on the best public source to follow to monitor all this, I would say to follow Jim Rickards public interviews or subscribe to his newsletter if you can afford it. Jim is the most plugged in source I know right now to what is going on with the two key issues listed above. He also provides regular free updates to the public in various interviews. Just follow his X account to find links to his interviews (example here). His newsletter is not expensive, but I know some will not be able to afford that. Input I get from Jim by email is very helpful to sorting out various information we have coming at us from all directions these days and helps inform some things I post here along with input from some other similar high credibility experts.

Of course if we learn of something that could disrupt the present system, we will post about it here. But in the current environment, with so many sources of potential instability in play, things could always happen quickly and by surprise. So Jim is the best source we can recommend to stay as up to date as possible on the most critical issues right now.

Summary: Things tend to stay the same until something forces change to take place. Try to monitor events and prepare for any surprises that might arise at any time.

Added note 7-6-2024: This is the latest public interview with Jim Rickards for those interested. Jim lays out the current global power struggle as globalist vs. nationalist as we have done here for some time. The main point is that a lot of the old political labels and terms are not as relevant in this new power struggle paradigm (left vs. right - Democrat vs. Republican, etc). So it's important to understand the real power struggle that is ongoing (nationalist vs. globalist). Whoever controls the monetary system and how money is distributed will set the future agenda. That's why it's the focus of this blog.

Added note 8-21-2024: This is Jim Rickards latest update interview on the election, geo politics, etc. Nothing is this interview changes the analysis presented in the post above. So lots of unusual events have taken place since this was posted, but the analysis remains unchanged at this time.

Is Gold (and Silver) Trying to Tell Us Something?

Anyone who has followed the monetary system issues discussed here on this blog understands that one of the key signals to keep an eye on is what is happening in the gold market. Sometimes what is happening in the silver market is also something to monitor as well. This blog is not focused on the gold and silver markets, since there are plenty of sites and information sources that cover those markets.

What we do try to monitor here are any signs that the existing US dollar based monetary system might be under stress or on the verge of some kind of major change, since that would surely impact all of our daily lives in a direct way. 

For years here, we have presented many risks that exist and are ongoing to the present monetary system. We have presented proposals from some of the leading experts in the world on ways to reform the monetary system with the goal of making it stronger, more resilient, and to hopefully better serve the average person this blog has tried to reach.

Recently, we have seen gold rise to historic highs in terms of its price in US dollars (and all other fiat currencies for that matter). Silver has now also showed signs of trying to confirm that perhaps something unusual is starting to unfold in the gold market. When we see this, the obvious question to raise here becomes -- Is Gold (and Silver) Trying to Tell Us Something about the stability of the present monetary system? 

We don't know the answer to that question yet, but we do believe it is time to monitor this more closely. There are several explanations offered for the recent move in gold prices. But in this article we will provide some links below to some that suggest this time could be different and we might be seeing early signs of some cracks in the present monetary system. We don't make predictions here and readers can research this and draw their own conclusions. But below are some experts who are worth listening to just in case this time is different.

This first link is more of a background to "the big picture" of why many are concerned about the soundness of the money used in our present monetary system. It's a 2022 interview with authors Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle about their book - A Guide to Good Money. Robert Pringle is a good friend and his views carry a lot of weight here having spent his entire career inside the central banking system. I view him as an expert on the present monetary system so his comments on what has gone wrong with it are valuable for anyone wanting to learn about these issues.

This next link is a recent interview with another expert and good friend - Jim Rickards. Jim believes there are several factors influencing the rise in gold including inflation and debt. In this recent interview he talks about one he feels is key, but overlooked in mainstream media. The weaponization of the US dollar now taken to new extremes with recent action in Congress (Repo Act) that authorizes the President to seize Russian assets (denominated in US dollars) that have been frozen as part of the sanctions. Jim explains why he thinks this could be a huge miscalculation by the US with potential significant ramifications on both the gold market and ultimately global acceptance of the US dollar around the world. That of course is exactly what we try to monitor here.

Next, we have Michael Oliver sort of summarizing these same issues and explaining why he thinks gold is saying this time will be different.

Then we have this recent interesting comment by Judy Shelton on her X account in reply to being asked if we will return to a gold standard in 2024. She replied "Thinking something like that, but in 2026. Stay tuned." You may recall she was nominated to be on the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump, but was not confirmed before he left office. What might prompt a reply like that is a reasonable question to ponder.

These links are enough to give you a feel for the big issues at stake here and why it seems like it may be time to monitor the gold and silver markets closely into the November elections in the US. There are many different stress points on the system out there and the coming US election is more likely to amplify them than to calm things down. 

Added note: 5-22-2024 -- Steve Forbes adds his thoughts on a future for gold in a recent article as described at Kitco here. 

ERA -- A Novel Approach to Achieving Sound Money?

With not much happening in terms of major monetary system change, I did hear from Dr. Joseph Potvin recently. He updated me in regards to some potential real world experimentation with his Earth Reserve Assurance Proposal (covered some time ago here). He forwarded me a copy of his December 2023 conference paper that covers the proposal in detail. A very recent version of the proposal paper can be found here.

We have archived several different proposals for monetary system reform and this one falls into a category I would describe as creative and innovative new ideas.

Below I have pasted in the abstract for the paper that explains the proposal in general and how Dr. Potvin envisions it functioning in a real world environment.

Abstract

"This paper presents a novel approach to achieving sound money. The design can be incrementally retrofitted to any conventional currency in a multi-currency system without a central reference unit of account. Drawing upon monetary theory and elements of monetary system designs of ancient Sumer and modern Hungary, a new tradable deposit receipt security would be introduced that is indexed to changes in the capacity of ecosystems within the currency zone to produce primary commodities, relative to a base year, weighted by currency of invoicing data across jurisdictions. 

This would establish a grounded 'Money-of-Account' referent for that currency. New money creation involves a second new tradable deposit receipt security to be issued by corporations and communities that have verifiably improved the primary productive capacity of ecosystems in their currency zone. 

Central banks would be invited to redeem the securities with a special series of commemorative banknotes, to serve as Money-in-Trade valued in accordance with the Money-of-Account. With this auxiliary method, relative currency worth reflects changes in the core ecological co-determinants of economic activity. Instead of expressing ecosystem productive capacity in terms of money, this framework expresses money in terms of ecosystem productive capacity."

Will Anything Change in the Monetary System in 2024?

Now that the BRICS summit has resulted in no significant changes to the monetary system so far, a reasonable question to ask is -- Will Anything Change in 2024?

We can never make future predictions with any certainty, but the odds are that not much will change in the monetary system in 2024. The US is in another Presidential election year so the focus by those in power will be to reassure the public that all is well which suggests no major monetary system reforms will be coming from inside the system. Why change things if things are going great as they will assure the public they are under their superb leadership?

On the flip side, those seeking to replace those in power will campaign on every negative thing they can think of and attempt to convince the public that only replacing the those in power now with themselves can save us from total imminent economic destruction.

In other words, the same political rhetoric we have had for decades on both sides by those in power vs. those seeking to replace them. 

Those attempting to replace those in power now will likely promise all kinds of "transformational change". If history is any guide, very little transformational change to the system will actually happen regardless of who wins the elections. It's mostly just campaign rhetoric on both sides.

The view on this blog for years now has been that only a collapse or implosion of the present (very corrupt) monetary system will open the door for any kind of major transformational changes. Those in power always have incentive for that not to happen on their watch since the "transformational change" will be quite painful for most people and result in total loss of their credibility from the general public. They would lose their positions of power and privilege. 

Those not in power tend to revert to this same mentality once they gain power (if they win) after telling everyone disaster is on the horizon if they are not put in power. Now they will own any disaster that happens, so they revert to saying everything will be great again with no real major changes actually taking place and hope the system keeps pumping out enough money (credit) to keep things afloat and most people content.

So, our expectation here is the same as it has been for a long time. Nothing major will change in the monetary system unless it collapses and change is forced upon those in charge (or those who replace those who are in charge). The trick in politics is to hope that the timing of something bad happening in the economy or with your currency is when the other guys are in power so you can blame them. No one wants to be Herbert Hoover.

We'll continue to monitor things here, but no postings here means we don't see anything major happening that would lead to major systemic changes. Most likely, if something happens that leads to major change, it will catch most everyone by surprise including us. But we'll continue to monitor events as best we can here and alert readers if we see something real and tangible that might impact the present monetary system.