News Note Update on Political Turmoil

Just a brief note on this as so far nothing has really changed much from the previous news note posted here on this as far as I know. Markets are still basically ignoring the situation and are not providing any kind of signal that anything significant that could impact markets or the financial system is taking place.

I have had some email exchanges with Jim Rickards to get some of this thinking on the situation and he has provided some brief comments that I am not at liberty to post here. 

However, Jim did let me know for anyone who wants to follow his analysis on this situation, he has one article written about it on his subscriber newsletter. Here is how Jim put it:

"I just wrote a 5,000 word article on impeachment for my newsletter Strategic Intelligence. You can refer readers to this link: https://paradigm.press/publications/awn/. New subscribers get access of the archives, which includes the October 2019 edition with the impeachment article."

Since that article is for his subscribers, it would inappropriate to comment on it other than to say that I feel sure he will continue to monitor this ongoing situation and will have ongoing analysis of it as things unfold over time.

The reason we have to keep an eye on this is because of the potential for something significant to arise unexpectedly very quickly that could rattle markets and even impact overall system stability. We do try to watch for that here as best we can. I can say that Jim made it very clear that he views this as a serious situation to monitor and that he will not be surprised if some significant events do eventually arise from it in the coming months ahead. So that just further confirms we do need to follow it on some level knowing the kind of sources Jim has available to him. 

I wish I could offer some kind of sage advice as to how to deal with anything that might arise from this, but it is virtually impossible to predict what kind of market reaction might happen or if the market will react at all. But since we already know the Fed is using unusual procedures to continue to insure liquidity is available, we need to keep an eye out for anything that might add any stress to the system.

I could try to analyze all the possible scenarios that could emerge, but I think that would be wasted energy at this point in time. In my view, everything so far is just political maneuvering to try and gain some kind of perceived advantage heading into the 2020 elections. If we see actual criminal indictments issued against high profile officials (former or current), then we need to take notice that things have probably moved beyond just the political positioning phase.

Hopefully, nothing significantly negative emerges to create havoc in markets or the banking system in general. Most sources seem to suggest that by the end of this year we may know better if that is a possibility.

Added note 10-15-2019: CNBC runs this article which is more confirmation that markets are completely ignoring the current political food fight. Stock market, dollar and gold are all ignoring it. If this changes, we'll try to note that here.