Saturday, November 9, 2024

Will the US Election Result Impact the Monetary System?

Now that the US election is over it's reasonable to ask if the result will spur any major change to the existing monetary system. For now, there is nothing to suggest any major changes are on the immediate horizon. Neither candidate really discussed the issue at all and every public comment I heard from President elect Trump implied the existing US dollar fiat based monetary system will just plod along. 

The US national debt continues to explode upward and all the risks to the present monetary system we have identified and discussed here remain in place. So, any new major financial crisis that destabilizes the current system could always force some kind of major systemic change. But absent that situation, it appears the new Trump Administration has no urgent plans to push for any major change.

The one ongoing global event we have discussed here with potential to impact the US dollar based system may actually diminish as a trigger for major change now. The BRICS, mostly encouraged by Russia and Brazil, have been working towards an alternative to the US dollar based monetary system and the SWIFT payment system. While they will continue forward with that initiative, a sense of urgency to use it as a counter to the US dollar may no longer exist. The main reason for this alternative was the US weaponization of the US dollar and SWIFT system imposing sanctions on Russia (and others) related to the war in the Ukraine. If Trump follows through on his promise to negotiate an end to the war, the sanctions likely would be dropped as part of the process. So, the urgency for a system to bypass the US dollar may subside. I'm sure they'll keep working on it to have something in place for the future if needed, but if sanctions are dropped, the urgency for implementing it soon will probably diminish..

As always. we'll continue to monitor events If anything surfaces to suggest major change could happen, we'll report it.