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Monday, October 15, 2018

IMF - Lagarde Issues Storm Cloud Warning on Global Economy

We have documented numerous warnings here over the last 4 and 1/2 years from both the IMF and the BIS related to potential systemic risks. None of those warnings has turned into another major financial crisis thus far.


Christine Lagarde (IMF) just issued a new warning on the global economy due to ongoing trade disputes, rising interest rates, and an increasing global debt burden. Below are a couple of excerpts from this article in MarketWatch.

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International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde delivered a warning on global growth, saying there are signs major economies such as the U.S. have ”plateaued.”

. . . . . 

"She also warned that some emerging economies will face additional pressure from tighter financial market conditions and a stronger dollar."

. . . . .

Lagarde said growing global debt — in emerging and developed economies — has reached an all-time high of $82 trillion, nearly 60% higher than 2007. 
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My added comments: It is easy to sound like a broken record just repeating systemic risk warnings over and over and yet nothing ever actually happens. That's OK. The risks do exist so it is important to report them even if nothing comes of it. By now, it should be obvious that no one can predict the timing of future events, but it is possible for most everyone to make some kind of plan to deal with a crisis if one did arise.

Added note: This article appearing in ABC.net.au includes this interesting comment from the IMF regarding the next major crisis:

"The IMF also said action by central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to bail out institutions and stimulate economies through trillions of dollars of quantitative easing would not be possible in managing any new crisis."

I noted these comments because they agree with what Jim Rickards has said for some time and we have reported his view on this here for some time as well.


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