Thursday, August 7, 2014

Bo Polny Makes a Bold Market Forecast for 2015

Market analyst Bo Polny has just written and released a very bold stock market forecast for 2015 for the alternative media site Silver Doctors. You can read his forecast here. An obvious question is why would we publish his forecast here since there are literally 1000's of such forecasts that range from bullish to bearish. The answer is simple. Mr. Polny has had a solid track record for accurate price forecasting. 

In this case, he is making a very clear prediction in both time and direction for the markets. If he is right this time, it will mean something big has happened that will cause monetary system change. Because his forecast is so specific and clear, it will be easy to track and see if he gets this major forecast right or wrong.

 Below we selected some of the more interesting quotes from his article to encourage you to read his whole article and forecast. After that we will make some concluding comments.

". . . . Cycle analysis indicates the US (Stock) Market Cycle is presently completing a 33+ year Bull Market Cycle and once complete, a Deflationary Bear Market Cycle will grip the US Markets in the year 2015 that devastates the World."

"Both a Head and Shoulders chart pattern in combination with a Megaphone Top Chart Pattern are forming on the US Markets and Cycle analysis indicates once these chart patterns complete expect a devastating deflationary Bear Market Cycle crash next year… 2015!" 
"Cycle Analysis further indicates before a Deflationary Cycle grips the US Market and the World, FIRST expect an Inflationary Gold spike to $2000 catching everyone off guard and leaving all but the resolute Gold and Silver Bulls behind!"
"Unlike the previous recession that followed the collapse of 2008, there is no way out of this one.  The time to finalize preparations for what’s coming is now.  It’s going to go from bad to worse to terrible and our World as we know it will change forever!"
"A $1300 Gold price is soon to be history as Gold Spikes into $2000 before year end as the third and final Gold cycle of 7-years in to 2020/21 and $10,000+ gets under way!"
Thank you and all the best,

Bo Polny
Concluding Comments: 
We are not trying to be overly dramatic by running this article. All forecasts can be wrong and Mr. Polny may miss this one for all we know. But we have followed his public forecasts on gold pricing for awhile now and his accuracy there has been somewhat incredible. In several cases he has called up and down moves in gold literally to the exact day. Here is an example from the past.
His most recent forecast called for gold to make a high in late June and then fall to a summer low before making a very sharp move higher over $2000 before the end of 2014.  In this case, gold did not make a high until early July (a little later than he forecast), but so far it has done what he predicted overall (make a high and then fall to a summer low).
Mr. Polny does not hedge and his forecasts are easy to follow to see if he is right or wrong. So we will do that here kind of like we follow Jim Rickards forecasts. It is interesting that he has picked 2015 as the year when a major stock market decline hits. This time frame fits in with other credible forecasts and would fit with Jim Rickards prediction that we will get a major trigger event that will bring down the current monetary system (to be replaced by a new SDR based system from the IMF). Jim Rickards does not try to give exact time frames, but lately has indicated he thinks we will see a recession by early 2015. He gives an overall time frame of between right now 5 years from now for this trigger event (lately he says probably sooner than later).
This is why we decided to go ahead and publish this prediction here. If Mr. Polny gets this forecast right (a major stock market drop in 2015), it will probably mean that the present monetary system will be under severe stress and in a crisis mode next year. That will likely lead to major monetary system change under crisis mode conditions. If that happens, people will surely need to prepare ahead of time. If he is wrong and nothing major happens in 2015, it is more likely that change will continue to happen in stages over time as seems to be the case right now.
In this case there is an easy way to use this forecast as a guide for 2015. If Mr. Polny hits his gold price forecast ($2000 by year end 2014), you can have more confidence that his 2015 forecast will happen. For one thing, something big will have to happen for gold to make a move like that in such a short time frame. If he misses the gold forecast, it will call into question whatever model he is using to make his 2015 forecast. We will follow it here and see what happens. We don't make predictions here, but we do follow others to see who gets things right over time more often. Something we hope is of value to readers.
One thing we do believe: Ignoring the issues is the worst possible decision to make. Keeping informed is very important given all that is happening in the world that can lead to major change.

Update: 8-8-14: Bo Polny publishes one new free update to his gold price forecast which you can read here. The new update states that the final summer low for gold is now in and gold should begin its climb to $2000 before year end. He adds that silver has not yet made its summer low which will come soon and then follow gold upward. You can follow this now and see if he gets it right or wrong. $2000 is a huge upmove by year end. You do have to respect someone who will put their neck on the line and stand behind it. We'll see how it turns out.

Update: 8-28-14: Bo Polny has posted a new update because gold did fall below the summer low price he called on 8-1-14. The new update is very comprehensive so we will post an article reviewing it this weekend.

Update 6-15-2015: So far this forecast by Bo Polny has not proven out. Here is what he saying as of early June 2015. He has a couple of weeks left in his revised forecast. It does not look like his forecast will pan out.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks I was looking for Polny's 8-8-14 "The 2014 Summer Gold Low is COMPLETE!" declaration. When these newsletter writers get one lucky call we hear about it ad nauseum. But when they make multiple bad calls, those forecasts goes missing on their sites - never to be mentioned again.