With all this in mind and with the US and the world clearly engaged in a more open struggle to determine which way the future will unfold, this article is an attempt to try and provide an update on where things stand and what should we monitor going forward to get an idea of what will "actually happen" regardless of what we may personally wish would happen. It is critical to have as firm a grasp on reality as possible to make personal financial decisions. This new article by Jim Rickards seems to sum up the where we stand situation as clearly and succinctly as any I can find. Below is a relevant quote from his article:
"The bottom line is the world is looking to turn away from dollar dominance in global finance. Given the severe sanctions regime against Russia, it may end sooner than most expect."
So, if Jim's analysis is correct (and I believe it is) the biggest global battle in progress is the battle to determine if the existing US dollar based monetary system as administered by the major central banks will continue to dominant the world's power structure or if it will replaced by something new and different.
After years of following all this and based upon direct input from a variety of experts like Jim Rickards my take is as follows.
There appear to be two major competing factions in the world over where we will go in the future (see recent article by Robert Pringle on this). A globalist view sees us moving towards a more centralized global governing structure where major global institutions make policy and the world's monetary system becomes more and more digitized and centrally controlled over time. A nationalist view sees us moving towards a breakdown of the existing more centralized power structure with individual nations reclaiming more national sovereignty.
So, while many view the current world conflict as East vs. West, my take is that the real battle is between the globalist and nationalist factions that exist in both the East and West. This can lead to strange alliances we would not expect. Nationalists in nations thought of as adversaries might work together on the big picture battle against a "globalist view" of the future for example. I think this view of things provides a better basis for understanding the information narrative wars we all see around us every day across all media platforms from mainstream media to social media to alternative internet based media.
What Should We Monitor?
My best guess is that we should watch to see how the ongoing battle between the globalist view for the future and the nationalist view unfolds. It seems as if these two factions have been somewhat gridlocked for many years with both sides having advantages and disadvantages in terms of gaining more leverage over the other side.
So, the first big thing to monitor is if we see a shift indicating one side or the other is gaining more leverage to move the future in the direction it prefers. If things stay gridlocked, we can expect that the present monetary system will continue to prevail for as long as possible. That is where we have been since 2007. At any time going forward, that could change, so it is important to understand the battle underway (between globalists and nationalists) to control any major changes to the global power structure going forward.
The biggest upcoming event to monitor is the outcome of the midterm elections in the US. Both sides of this struggle for control of the future are all in to win those elections. We can expect, given the high stakes for control and loss of control in the US, that just about anything could happen to try and influence voters between now and November. If the Republican party achieves a significant win this fall (regains control of the House of Representatives), I would view that as a shift in leverage towards the nationalist side of this conflict. If the Democrat party holds on to the House, I would view that as a shift in leverage towards the globalist side.
The other biggest thing to monitor is what happens globally in the struggle to disrupt the present US dollar centered monetary system and global payments system. The globalists are more likely to want to preserve the US dollar based system as long as possible and, if a major transition takes place, to move to a globally accepted fiat currency system controlled by the same basic institutions who run the present monetary system (central banks, IMF, etc). The global nationalists, which in my view would now include the BRICS nations, are more likely to try and replace the present US dollar centered monetary system with an alternative system where they would be less subject to being controlled by the western central banking institutions and the IMF (the opposite of a globalist vision of the entire world uniting under a global governance power structure). So, this is what I would encourage people to monitor in the coming year.
Who decides what money is and how it will be distributed to the population holds immense power over what actually happens all the way down to the individual level. These big picture issues (and which side controls them) are likely more tied to how the future will unfold than any single issue politics such as cultural social issues or even things like inflation and employment. Those are the smaller battles in the information narrative war.
As I view things, those individual political issues are symptoms of how the big picture issues are decided along with which side (globalist or nationalist) will have the most control of the global power structure. That is why this blog focuses on monitoring the big picture issue of the future of the monetary system. Whoever controls the money and payments system controls how things work as Jim Rickards explains in his article linked above.
Added comment 8-17-22: I see no reason to change anything stated above. It appears to me that things are unfolding very much as expected with the November US elections being the biggest upcoming event to monitor. Unless something major happens, I'll likely not have much else to say until those results are known.
Added comment 9-21-22: While I have nothing new to report and things appear to continue to unfold as expected above politically in the US, some readers may have interest in this new interview Jim Rickards did with Steph Pomboy. It's somewhat of an update on things with Jim now more concerned about policy makers creating a deep recession and/or global liquidity crisis that could be worse than the GFC of 2008. Obviously, if that happens, the potential for the present monetary system to become unstable would go sharply up. Below are the links to Part I and Part II of the interview. Part II is the first 25 minutes or so of the second link: