Monday, December 21, 2020

Will Any Significant Change to the Present Monetary System Take Place in 2021?

Since we are about to head into a new year, it seems appropriate to try and provide some kind of update on the primary question this blog was created to follow  -- Will Any Significant Change to our Present Monetary System Take Place in 2021?

The answer we have offered here for some time is that while conditions that could lead to major changes do exist, so far we have not seen it. All the information sources I follow and get direct input from still do not tell me they see any indications of major changes are coming soon. Most of these sources agree it is always possible, but there is no indication that those in charge of the present system have any desire to rush forward with major changes unless events outside their control force them to do so. That is still the best information we can provide at this time looking at dozens of sources I do follow and hear from.

So, what are the key events to follow in 2021 that could change things and disrupt the present system so much that some kind of major change does happen? I have three to talk about at this time:

1- The 2020 US election results and the related controversy/skepticism surrounding the election. By now, I suspect most readers know that the 2020 election has done nothing but further ramp up the huge political division that has existed in the US for years now. Currently, most expect that VP Biden will take office in January. We are still waiting to see who will control the Congress as two Senate seats in Georgia are still undecided until January 5, 2021. There are two aspects to the election results to follow that could cause some level of disruption to the present system:

a) If the Democrats win the two open Senate seats and then control The White House and the House of Representatives and the Senate, it opens the door to some more radical changes to the system than we have seen in some time, especially fiscal policy. There has also been talk of potentially "packing the Supreme Court" to alter its makeup and adding additional states to the US. This would virtually cement Democratic Party control of the US far into the future since these states would elect Democratic Senators. Major fiscal policy changes then become more likely that could eventually impact the present system. However, my best guess at this time is that even if all the above does happen, it is not likely to cause major changes to our present monetary system any time soon. I would just advise readers to follow this and watch for any signs of major change.

b) It is now crystal clear that millions of supporters of President Trump believe so much fraud took place in the recent election that it was actually stolen. Nothing is going to change this no matter what happens in the coming weeks and months. VP Biden will enter office as possibly the weakest President in history given that at least half the country will not view him as a legitimate President. This is somewhat the same as has been the case for President Trump over the last four years. While this huge political divide has not so far triggered such disruption to the present system that it implodes, at some point it may. So I would advise readers to keep a careful eye on this as well going forward in 2021.

2- The Long Term Health and Economic Impacts of the COVID Pandemic and the Response to It. In my view, this problem has more potential to eventually so disrupt the present system that changes have to made than number 1 above (the election results). We have already seen enormous negative impacts from this on both the health front and the economic front globally. Jim Rickards will have a new book out that takes a deep dive into this whole situation (The New Great Depression). All of Jim's books are worth reading for the average person, but this one may be the most important one people need to read. I have an advance copy of the new book and will post some comments on it early in January 2021 before the book is released for public sale on 1-12-2012. Jim explains in detail the risks this virus and the response to it bring to all of us and how this will not go away quickly. In my view, everyone needs to learn as much as possible on this topic because this is far from over and if things go south from here with this virus, it can certainly become a threat to the sustainability of our present system and force major changes to happen. Jim explains why even a vaccine does not mean we are out of the woods.

3- The continuing breakdown of trust by the general public in all our major institutions including government, media, and the educational system. As noted in number 1 above, the recent US election has done nothing but further erode public trust in our institutions for millions of people. Of course most people already know Trump supporters feel the system is corrupt and rigged against "the average person" which is why he has the support he has. But now item number 2 above is also eroding public trust and not just by Trump supporters. 

Below I am linking to two examples of this coming from the other side of the political spectrum. The first link is a recent video done by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. questioning all kinds of things about the COVID virus and the government response to it. He also calls out Big Tech and other major corporations as part of the problem and not the solution. The second link below is to a new article about Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) calling out some of the same people as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does in his video. On top of that, she proposes a 95% excess profits tax on some specific major corporations she says have unfairly profited from the COVID lockdowns. She says small businesses have been forced to close and millions lost their only means of making a living and should get help from her proposed tax. The point to understand here is that it is not just Trump supporters who believe something is wrong and our present system is very corrupt and rigged against the average person.

These two links below illustrate this view is not confined to one side of the political spectrum. In the future, it will be interesting to follow this and see if these two very large groups (Trump supporters and Benie type supporters for example) start to join together in a populist movement unified by their distrust of the present system more than they are divided by their political views. I would advise readers to follow this as well in 2021. If enough people lose trust in our system, we could reach a tipping point that could force major changes to happen despite the reluctance of those running the system to make such changes.

Added comments: I do plan to post an article on Jim Rickards new book in early January. Depending on what ends up happening with the election results, I may post something on that if it seems relevant to the main topic here. Beyond that, I do not have any further articles planned for the blog and may not post articles again for some time (or at all) unless something new happens to suggest something may change. Otherwise, there is just not much to report.

Sunday, December 13, 2020

News Note: G7 Says Currency Monopoly Must Remain in the Hands of Nations

Once again the G7 affirms their dedication to preservation of the status quo in this Reuters article. Recently we posted this article about three important things learned from doing this blog over the years.  The third item was -- It is much harder to get consensus for major change to a system than many people realize. 

This article is yet another example of that. Basically, the G7 is quite content with how currencies work now and not interested in any changes outside the control of the present system. Below is an extract from the Reuters article.


"German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz issued a sharply worded statement after the meeting, underscoring his concerns about authorizing the launch of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency - newly renamed Diem - in Germany and Europe.

“A wolf in sheep’s clothing is still a wolf,” he said. “It is clear to me that Germany and Europe cannot and will not accept its entry into the market while the regulatory risks are not adequately addressed.”

He added: “We must do everything possible to make sure the currency monopoly remains in the hands of states.”

Read the full Reuters article here

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Jim Rickards Latest Interview

While we continue to wait and see what implications (if any) the recent US elections may have on the present monetary system. below I have pasted in the latest video interview done by Jim Rickards. Lots of readers here follow Jim and like to keep up with his latest comments. They discuss his upcoming new book to be released in January 2021 - The New Great Depression.




Added comment: I have had numerous email exchanges with Jim Rickards regarding the status of the US elections. His comments are interesting to say the least and we are both following events to see if anything significant results from all the rumors and confusion now circulating in all kinds of media. So far, it is still too early to draw any final conclusions. It will likely be January 2021 at the earliest before things get clearer.