In our last update tracking the Bo Polny forecast, we noted that Mr. Polny had stated that gold should not fall below $1240 for a summer low. Since gold did fall well below that price, a natural question is: Does this change his overall forecast? The short answer is no it doesn't. To get his full explanation of why you can read his latest update here.
Obviously gold falling below his summer low price calls into question how accurate his forecast model is, at least in the short term. But it will be into early 2015 before we can see how the big picture forecast turns out.
Mr. Polny is very upfront in addressing that gold did fall below his original summer low price. He is still convinced his big picture forecast will prove to be correct and that is really the one we need to keep an eye on. If gold does make a major move up in the next few months as he expects, it will mean some things are happening that are not normal and could very well impact the monetary system. We will track it into 2015 to see how things turn out.
It is important to stay engaged and watchful even when things appear to be fairly calm and there does not seem like any immediate change is on the horizon.
I am in the middle of Jim Rickard's book The Death of Money right now and it points out how things can seem stable right up until some unexpected event triggers major change. That is why this blog exists. To watch for this very thing.
It is important to understand the reasons how and why this can happen, learn as much as possible, and formulate a plan in case change does happen very quickly. Soon we will review The Death of Money to illustrate why this is important for everyone to think about. The book does a very good job of explaining in detail various scenarios that could happen very quickly and why everyone needs to prepare just in case.