Saturday, October 1, 2016

Crisis Watch Update @ 10-1-16

Until something changes, I will just continue to provide the link to the last comprehensive update I did back on 8-1-16. For now, I do not have any information suggesting that anything major has changed. There are always those predicting a crisis is imminent and the conditions do exist for one to happen, but so far all the dates put forward for such a crisis have come and gone without the kind of crisis we watch for here unfolding. Many have now moved their date forward to the beginning of next year under the assumption that a crisis just before the US election is unlikely.

The BIS did issue their quarterly report which once again notes the risks of a bubble existing in equity markets due to central bank policies. Below are links to some articles covering this latest report from the BIS. They also expressed concerns about Chinese banks and cyber security for the entire banking system. Also, the Telegraph publishes this article about a new annual report from UN economists warning that the conditions for the "third leg of the global financial crisis" exist and Deutsche Bank is in the news again.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Global banking watchdog warns over Chinese banks

Wall Street Journal - Markets have become more dependent on central banks says BIS

CNBC - Dissonant Markets may be underestimating risks to stability: BIS

The BIS also issued this report on cyber security concerns in banking

The Telegraph - China Facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns

My added comments: One thing to keep an eye on is how western sources talk about the potential for another major crisis vs. how eastern sources do. If we do get a major global crisis, people will be asking who to blame of course. 

We can expect the western sources are more likely to point a finger at China while eastern sources are more likely to point a finger at monetary policies of the US Fed and other western central banks or "too big to fail banks" like Deutsche Bank. 

Both sides will probably be able to make valid points so who knows who the public would blame if we get the crisis. It does matter because the public is less likely to support solutions to fix things offered by someone they blame for the crisis.

Added notes: The Yuan now joins the SDR currency basket which the IMF covered in this recent conference call. The IMF shows its SDR valuation here If you want an alternative media take on this you can listen to this interview with David Morgan who is a precious metals advocate.

Additional added notes: There is no shortage of alternative media predicting that the problems at Deutsche Bank are in the process of triggering the major crisis we talk about here. Because these sources tend to say this about every event that happens constantly, it makes it impossible to rely on them. At any point in time they could be right and maybe the events at DB will be the trigger, but there is no way to really know. Just keep an eye on events and watch what actually happens. Here are a couple of example links:

Deutsche Bank to trigger financial collapse this weekend

Deutsche Bank will create a widespread global panic just like Lehman

In contrast, here is a mainstream media take on things (CNBC)

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