Monday, December 5, 2016

Wall Street Journal: Global Economists Wonder if Trump will Shake up World Order

This new article in the Wall Street Journal says that global elites are concerned that Trump will abandon the global institutions that have ruled the day for decades now. This is exactly what we have noted we will watch for here. 

It's too early to tell what will really happen, but this article makes it clear there is deep concern that Trump will not have much use for the IMF or G-20 policies if he thinks they don't serve US interests. Time will tell. Below are a couple of excerpts from the article.


"Could Donald Trump upend seven decades of U.S. international economic diplomacy? That what some economists fear, taking the president-elect’s trade threats at face value.
In the wake of World War II, the U.S. and its allies established several global institutions to help stabilize the world economy and prevent spasms of interstate violence. Now, some political scientists and economists fear Mr. Trump risks turning more countries inward if he disengages from the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and other cooperative forums Washington has long relied on to help preserve world security."
. . . . 
“A Trump administration might try to rewrite global architecture where he sees the American projection of power unduly constrained by convention or international rules,” says Robert Kahn, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Combined with congressional Republican’s opposition to fresh funding for the IMF and its sister development institution, the World Bank, many economists envision Mr. Trump’s White House largely ignoring the two organizations."
My added comments: The US election has changed the game somewhat in terms for what we watch for here. In the past all we watched for were signs from the IMF that might indicate some kind of major monetary system change could be coming. Now, we have to see what kind of relationship unfolds between the Trump Administration and the IMF  (and G-20) first. If all the major powers (US, Russia, China, the EU) take a more nationalistic turn as this WSJ article suggests may happen, it is doubtful any kind of major global reforms can move forward any time soon and we may have even fewer articles here on the blog if that turns out to be the situation. We should have a better idea by the Spring of 2017.

Added note: on 12-7-16 we will feature Dr. Warren Coats new article with his thoughts on the election results and how things might go forward.

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