List of IMF and BIS Systemic Risk Warnings

Over the past couple of years we have documented numerous warnings which the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have issued in regards to risks that exist to the stability of the global financial system. Some of the warnings come directly from IMF and BIS officials and publications. One comes from a speech by BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana. Others come from articles appearing on the IMF Direct blog. One is a link to former IMF Peter Doyle who says despite issuing risk warnings, the IMF has failed in providing early warnings for systemic crisis.


Below is a list of links to these warnings to make it easier for readers to read and review. It is intended to be an information resource available to anyone who can use it. The links (in parentheses) allow you to go directly to the source link used for my blog article if you like.


Readers are encouraged to send us links to new articles like these if you see them so the list can be updated. This list contains a lot of information. A suggestion might be to bookmark this page and review the information over time.

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June 2015 BIS - World is Defenseless in next Crisis  (UK Telegrahph, no blog article) (BIS Annual Report)

June 2015 BIS - Jaime Caruana speech - The monetary system has a blind spot (pp 6-7)

July 2015 - IMF - Warns US the System is Still Vulnerable (CNN - no blog article)

July 2015 - IMF - Warns Pension Funds Could Pose Systemic Risk ( FT - no blog article) 

July 2015 - IMF - Systemic Risk Oversight and Management - (lists various risks in the US)

August 2015 BIS - Monetary Policy Dilemmas for Emerging Markets (BIS workpaper)

Sept 2015 BIS - Warns on Impact of Fed Tightening BIS Quarterly Report (Q3 2015)


October 2015 IMF - Warns on Emerging Market Defaults  IMF Financial Stability Report

January 2016 - New Serious Warnings from both former BIS and current IMF  - Blog article

February 2016 - BIS Jamie Caurana - Oil Collapse could prick debt bubble - speech link - Blog article

March 2016 - BIS Claudio Borio - we need to abandon debt-fuelled growth model - slides - Blog article

March 2016 - BIS Quarterly Review - Confidence in Central Banks has been Faltering -  Blog article

April 2016 - IMF Issues New Debt Warning -  Blog article  - Source article (Bloomberg)

June 2016 - BIS - Warning on Too Strong US Dollar - Blog article - Source speech link

August 2016 BIS Workpaper - Unconventional Monetary Policies "Dangerous"? -  Source article (BIS)

October 2016 IMF Annual Report - Warns Banks - Source press conference

December 2016 BIS (Claudio Borio Q&A) - Risk of Historic Rupture in the System Still Exists - source 

February 2017 (BIS) Jaime Caruana Speech - New Debt Warnings - source link


Added notes:

A thank you to Bill Holter for mentioning this list in his recent article (Jim Sinclair runs it here)

Greg Hunter and Bill Holter talk about this warnings list in this interview

Appreciate Willem Middelkoop mentioning this list on his Twitter feed

Jim Rickards points out that these warnings have been issued for a long time now


Along those lines, the IMF has been talking about and studying this problem for a long time.
Below are some links to a 2009 in depth IMF report on Systemic Risks.

Chapter 1 - Stabilizing the Global Financial System

Chapter 2 - Assessing the Systemic Implications of Financial Linkages 

Chapter 3 - Detecting Systemic Risk

A quote from the Conclusion Section of Chapter 3:

"Although every measure of systemic risk has limitations to some degree, and indeed all models are by nature simplifications of the complexity of the real world, this chapter discusses various tools that can be used to shed light on potential systemic events. Thus far, financial sector regulation and supervision have focused on the risk of failure of each financial institution in isolation. The analysis presented here suggests that regulators should take into account the risk of both individual and systemic failures."

In October 2014 the IMF released an internal study on how much its ability to provide early warning for a crisis had improved and what obstacles remained. You can see it here. The conclusions in the report (pp 30-32) listed areas that needed improvement.

Here is a January 2015 ECB report on the IMF's Surveillance of Europe - recommendations to the IMF for improvement start on page 24.

2 comments:

  1. Just a quick note. The response to the Bill Holter article citing this warnings list was incredible. Because so many thousands of people are visiting this page I went back and tried to make it more user friendly by adding a direct source link for the information used to write my original blog post. I do agree that providing direct source links is important. While they can found in my original blog articles listed above, the links to the right (in parentheses) should make it easier to go directly to source information if you want to. I apologize for not doing this before, but I did not realize the Bill Holter article was coming out so quickly and I had not really finished working with this page to add the extra links when he wrote the article. It's wonderful to have so many people find the blog so I wanted to try and make this page easier to work with if you are trying to verify the sources of the information.

    Thank you for taking time to look at this page. I hope it will be helpful to you in studying the various warnings. I will add that both the IMF and the BIS feel they are working on improvements to financial system stability and you can look at the links at the bottom of the page to see how they believe they are addressing the risks that they warn about listed above. If you have questions or concerns just drop me an email any time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Another quick note to thank all the sites that have run this list now. It's more than I can keep up with, but all of them are appreciated. Silver Doctors ran the list here:

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/imf-and-bis-systemic-risk-warnings/#more-56395

    ReplyDelete