Friday, August 29, 2014

Tracking Bo Polny's forecast

Earlier this month we ran this article on a bold market prediction that Bo Polny has made for 2015 (a severe stock market drop).  We noted that if Mr. Polny hits his gold price forecast of $2000 by the end of 2014, it would add a lot of credibility to his stock market projection. And if he hits both forecasts, it likely means that something is happening that could lead to monetary system change.  But recently gold dropped below the summer low he called on 8-1-14. So, does that change his overall forecast? Let's see.

I asked Mr. Polny this question and he replied that gold dipping a little below his summer low price of $1281 on August 1st did not impact his overall forecast. Today he published an in depth public update where he explains how he derives his forecast and why the recent dip below his summer low price does not change his big picture outlook. You can read that update here. Below are some quotes from his public update article:

"On August 11, 2014 public post was made on SilverDoctors titled ‘A 3-Year Gold BEAR Market Ends & a 7-Year Gold BULL Market Begins’ calling August 1, 2014 a summer cycle low at $1281. That call was premature and YES the $1281 cycle low call BROKE on August 21, 2014 as Gold fell to a low of $1273. Did the $1281 break change anything? Absolutely not! Why

The 7-year historic tidal wave cycle indicates that the summer 2014 low MUST be a higher degree low relative to the June 2014 low at $1240, so Gold breaking $1281 and falling to $1273 changed absolutely NOTHING within the overall 7-year tidal wave cycle."

Get Ready for a Fall 2014 World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts!

"Cycle analysis indicated the next 7-year tidal wave Gold Bull Market cycle began this past July 2014; Gold has been consolidating in the 7th year of sabbatical rest within a Symmetric Triangle and one final push lower is still possible before a breakout arrives this fall 2014 that lead to World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts! There remains a very probable possibility of a commodity inflationary price spike and should this inflationary spike occur, Gold would easily achieve $2000 by year end. If no inflationary spike arrives in 2014 (as cycle analysis favors it will occur) expect Gold to still close the year closer to $2000 than $1300."

My added comments: Readers should take time to read the entire public update as it provides an in depth explanation as to why Mr. Polny feels this forecast will hold up. For those who have interest in technical analysis and cycles for markets, the article will be especially interesting.

We will continue to track this gold price forecast into the end of this year. As we have said, for gold to reach that price point (or a price close to $2000) that quickly would imply that something is happening that would be heavily impacting the monetary system. And it would lend credence to the view that in 2015 we could see a sharp downmove in the stock market. 

All of this would tie in to the forecast by Jim Rickards and others that in 2015 we will see clear evidence that QE has not been successful and Central Banks will react with another round of QE. And this recent article in Foreign Affairs is supportive of the idea that Central Bank policies of QE and low interest rates have not worked to establish a sustainable economic recovery. We will follow all of it and see how it turns out into late 2014 and 2015.

Update 9-8-14: Bo Polny has issued a new public update which we cover here.

No comments:

Post a Comment