Thursday, December 1, 2016

Crisis Watch Update - Nothing New to Report

At this point, unless something happens to suggest a new major crisis is underway, there is simply nothing new to report here. The US election results have simply reset expectations all over the world and I don't think anyone really has much of an idea where things are headed right now.

The latest theory I see out there is that some suspect Trump was "allowed" to win the election so that when the next major crisis arrives, it can be blamed on him and the more conservative Republican Party. I cannot find any actual evidence to support this view at this time and so it is simply pure speculation by some in the alternative media. If something like this did happen (or was planned) it would have to be quite some time into a new Trump Administration for people to associate it with Trump (I would guess at least 9 months to a year).

The more likely situation is that unless some kind of unexpected event unfolds that almost no one sees coming, a new major crisis is not on the near term horizon. We have fully documented that the conditions for such a crisis do exist and are of some concern to organizations like the IMF and the BIS. However, neither organization is forecasting anything like the major crisis that would be needed to prompt major monetary system changes. 

So, if one happens in the next few months, it will both negate the theory that it is planned so that Trump can be blamed (because it would be too soon) and will also take both these organizations completely by surprise. Neither has put forward any public plan to deal with such a crisis and Trump has never talked about how he would handle it as far as I know. In fact the IMF study on the role of the SDR is scheduled to take quite a bit of time and is nowhere near ready to make any recommendations that I know of. None of the sources I talk to have indicated to me they expect this kind of crisis any time soon and would be surprised to see one.

Bottom line: We are completely in the dark right now as to how such a crisis would be handled if it were to take place and all available evidence suggests no one is expecting this kind of crisis any time soon. But we will continue to monitor events here and try to stay alert in case something does pop up.

Added notes: Dr. Warren Coats has a new article out with some interesting thoughts on the impact of the US election so I will have an article on that in December. We also link to the debate between Jim Rickards and Ann Pettifor recently held in London. I understand they had a full house and many turned away due to fire code restrictions so there was a lot of interest in this debate.

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