Thursday, March 22, 2018

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast

Many people follow the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast because it has tended to be more accurate more often than some other forecasts. But his quarter, they seem lost. Below I have pasted in their forecast model which has plunged from a projected high over 5% to now under 2%.  


Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2018: Q1

Added note: Jim Rickards posted the track of this decline in this twitter post and also points out that he explained how the over 5% projection was way off base back in February in an appearance on Fox Business News. The discussion of the GDP Now number starts about the 2 minute mark where Rickards explains why the number changes during the quarter. Since we are now pretty close to the end of the quarter, the lower forecast should end up being more accurate.

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