Showing posts with label bypass US dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bypass US dollar. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Reuters -- Russia Says BRICS Nations Favor Common Payment System

Russia and other BRICS nations have long been talking about various ways to bypass the US dollar based global payments system. While nothing major has happened there yet, here is yet another article appearing in Reuters quoting Russian officials on this topic. Below is a brief excerpt.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, a group of major emerging economies known as BRICS, back the idea of developing a common payment system, a Russian official said on Thursday.

Russia and its BRICS peers have been looking for ways to decrease their dependence on the U.S. dollar and have advocated using their national currencies in mutual trade."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This article in the South China Morning Post says China is encouraging Chinese corporations to "diversify away for US dollar debt". In this case Euro based debt is promoted by the Chinese government.

Added comment: The article also says the BRICS nations has "discussed" the idea of using a "common cryptocurrency for mutual payments". However, it also goes on to point out that in the past Russian officials have spoken out against cryptocurrencies. So far, this all seems to be an area where a lot of study and discussion takes place, but no actual payments system based on any kind of cryptocurrency has emerged out of it.

Additional added note: The ongoing major repo operation at the US Fed continues to generate a lot of speculation. As the "temporary" program seems to expand further out into the future, more and more skeptics are raising questions as to what is going on here. 

Some suggest the Fed is trying to cover up some kind of problem inside the banking system. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to insist nothing unusual is going on with Chairman Powell directly stating that in this recent written testimony to Congress as follows:

"In response to the funding pressures in money markets that emerged in mid-September, we decided to maintain a level of reserves at or above the level that prevailed in early September. To achieve this level of reserves, we announced in mid-October that we would purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year and would continue temporary open market operations at least through January. These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of monetary policy as we continue to learn about the appropriate level of reserves. They do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy."

This article appearing in non mainstream Wall Street on Parade is an example of the kind of skeptical analysis of these unsual Fed actions. It points out that two congressmen from Texas raised questions to Chairman Powell about all this. It quotes Chairman Powell responding to these questions at one point in this way (I added underline for emphasis):

"Powell: “We’re doing a lot of forensic work to understand why. Some of that may be reserves – the level of reserves needs to be higher than we thought, which means our balance sheet a little bigger. There may also be aspects of our supervisory and regulatory practice that we can look at that would allow the liquidity that we have, that we think is the appropriate level, to flow more freely in the system. Without, though, undermining safety and soundness.”

This recent article in Zero Hedge points out that the "little bigger balance sheet" has already jumped up to over $4 Trillion once again and represents a very rapid reversal of all the hard fought efforts to reduce their balance sheet with its QT (Quantitative Tightening) program. So it is not surprising we see articles like the one in Zero hedge questioning all this. 

We have stated here that readers should follow this closely over time to see if "there is nothing to see here" or if something troubling is going on inside the banking system that the Fed prefers not to make public. It is worth pointing out that the last major financial crisis in 2008 supposedly "caught everyone by surprise" and that the Fed obviously would not want to create public panic by announcing some kind of major problem even if they are working on some kind of problem behind the scenes. As always, time will give us the answer.

Thursday, August 15, 2019

BRICS Pay - Another Effort to Bypass the US Dollar

A thank you to a reader for alerting me to this article on Silkroadbriefing.com that explains the new cloud based BRICSPay system. The article points out that this system being installed for use in the BRICS nations is another effort to bypass both the US dollar and also the US banking system. 



Below are a few excerpts from the article followed by a few added comments.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The BRICS grouping of countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are creating a single payment system, BRICS Pay, as part of the drive to establish a common system for retail payments and transactions between the member countries.

These nations, all among the worlds leading and most powerful emerging markets, plan to introduce a special cloud platform, which will connect their national payment systems. An online wallet will be developed with access to these payment systems, which will also include mobile apps similar to Apple Pay, which can be installed on smartphones for purchases in any of the five BRICS countries, regardless of which currency the payment and the money in the account of the buyer are denominated in.

This means that nationals of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will be able to use their own national currencies as a direct basis of exchange for external payments. This is being seen as a major step on the path to de-dollarization and a de-coupling from the current US controlled global banking system."

. . . .

"In order for settlements in national currencies to bypass the dollar, the People’s Bank of China will open lines for currency swaps to partner banks to support the exchange trade in yuan in regional currency markets. Similar lines will be opened by the central banks of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. In these instances, a settlement mechanism based on a basket of currencies of the BRICS countries and a separate financial infrastructure will appear. This, in turn, will support the diversification of the global financial system and currency multi-polarity. BRICS Pay, as a contactless transfer system, will give the citizens of the BRICS countries a convenient means of conducting transactions."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My added comments: The use of sanctions by the US government has created a predictable response around the world. Nations wary of get caught up in the problems associated with US sanctions are working an a variety of creative ideas to try and bypass the US centered banking system and the US Dollar.

The process so far has been very slow and gradual, but we do see that it continues to grow and there is no reason to think it will not continue to do so. We continue to monitor these kinds of efforts and report on them when information is available.


Added notes 8-23-19: Russia's Rosneft to switch from US dollars to Euros for oil contracts.

"Russia’s Rosneft (ROSN.MM), one of the world’s top oil producers and exporters, has notified customers that future tender contracts for oil products will be denominated in euros not dollars, five trading sources told Reuters."

Also, The Economist runs an article questioning what will come after Bretton Woods II which we covered here.

Monday, August 6, 2018

Are Russia and the BRICS Still Interested in Bypassing the US Dollar?

If you are going to try and cover the potential for monetary system change like we do here, one aspect you have to mention is the ongoing effort by a number of nations to construct some kind of system that can bypass the US dollar. 


We have covered that quite a bit here and have noted that both Russia and China have made it pretty clear in public statements that they would like to find ways around the US dollar dominated monetary system since it provides the US with a lot of leverage globally. 

This article appearing in Russia Today back in late 2017 provides more evidence that this effort continues even though it clearly moves very slowly. Very recently Russian President Putin said that Russia "is not rejecting the dollar" but added that with the US imposing sanctions on Russia, it must take actions to minimize risks associated with holding US dollars. He also said that the US "undermines trust in the dollar as the reserve currency" by imposing restrictions on settlements in dollars. He went on to say that US actions prompt "dozens of countries to consider other options".


Below are some excerpts from the RT article from last year and then just a few added comments. I added the underline for emphasis.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"An initiative to create a joint digital currency for BRICS countries and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has been proposed by the Central Bank of Russia, according to its First Deputy Governor Olga Skorobogatova.

She said the issue of a common cryptocurrency for a number of countries is very promising, more than that for a single nation.

“The participants of different economic events where I usually take part… all come to the conclusion the issue of a virtual currency is not needed much by one country. First of all, it makes sense to discuss the cryptocurrency on the level of several countries such as BRICS and EEU. It makes sense to set one equivalent for all payments,”Skorobogatova said at a Russian finance ministry meeting."

. . . . .

“The introduction of a national digital currency seems to us not entirely justified from the point of view of macroeconomics, population...” said Skorobogatova.

. . . . . 

"In September, the chief of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev said the BRICS finance committee was discussing a joint virtual currency for the five-nation bloc of developing economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa."


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My added comments: I underlined some parts of the quotes above to emphasize the lack of enthusiasm expressed by the Russian Central Bank for a "national digital currency".  This is something we have covered here pretty extensively because so many central banks around the world have talked about the idea of a national central bank digital currency (CBDC) and yet there has been no movement so far by major central banks in that direction. This is consistent with what we have reported here for some time. 

It seems like that the idea of some kind of national central bank digital currency has attracted interest and media attention, but when people look at trying to put national fiat currencies on a blockchain platform in a real world monetary system (that must be able to quickly process thousands of transactions), reality takes over and we don't hear much more about it. One notable exception is the news last fall from IBM, KlickEx, and Stellar that they would implement what KlickEx CEO Robert Bell described as "the first institutional scale implementation of blockchain".

Along those lines, I see articles constantly predicting that either Russia or China is on the verge of launching their own national digital currency any time now. But look again at the comments above from the Russian Central bank in a Russian based news publication. They don't see any reason for one national central bank digital currency. More and more central banks have made similar comments. In this case Russia is floating the idea of a common digital currency on a regional basis, but offers no time frame for when we might see this. The article cited above was first published in December 2017. It is August 2018 with no signs of the regional virtual currency mentioned in the article at this time.

So, while we should monitor this space in terms of its potential to impact the global monetary system, there is no indication at this time that blockchain based digital currencies (either national or regional) are on the near term horizon. The same situation for the IMF. They have talked about a digital version of the SDR (as we have reported here). But I have no information that the technology to implement such a thing using blockchain exists at this time. Beyond that, the IMF has not indicated they have much enthusiasm for expanding the role of the SDR in recent public statements on that topic.

While I can't rule that out some day, I have no indication at this time that anything like that is ready to go. It can't happen without the technology to do it being in place and having been thoroughly tested in the  real worldThe only large scale real world type test involving mainstream financial institutions using blockchain for payments that I am aware so far is the one noted above from IBM, KlickEx and Stellar .

Added note: Coming up over the next couple of weeks are two interesting articles. First, Dr. Judy Shelton comments on the potential for monetary system reform arising out of the current world debate on free and fair trade. After that, Robert Bell of KlickEx gives us his take on where he sees the monetary system going based on his real world experience working with the latest innovations in fintech.