Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Evaluating Credibility over Time

In the previous post I mentioned the need to stay informed and evaluate sources of information over time to establish their credibility.

We will use this as real time example.

One of my links on this site is to Jim Rickards twitter. I link to him because I have watched his forecasts over time. He has a good track record for forecasting in my view so I think his views are worth keeping an eye on.

Let's test him on this small item. If you follow his twitter account you know he was in Vail last week and talked with some high officials at the FED. Someone on his twitter asked Jim if the FED will continue to taper.

Here is what Jim replied on 1-25-2014 on his twitter site:

"Tapering next week is a done deal, but there's more uncertainty around the following meetings than markets have priced"

So, let's see if he gets this one right. He usually does in anything related to the FED.

This is how I evaluate what people and articles I will put on this site. They have to show some results and establish credibility at some level. No one gets everything right, but over time a trend tends to emerge. Rickards has been a consultant to US intelligence services to do forecast models on these macro economic issues.

UPDATE (1-29-14): This is not a big surprise, but Jim hit this one as expected.

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