In our last blog article, we made this comment about the plan that seems to be surfacing under the new Trump Administration in terms of improving the asset side of the US balance sheet:
"While recent comments by Secretary Bessent imply there is no near term plan to revalue US gold, I would not rule out the idea that over the next couple of years as the new US sovereign wealth fund is rolled out, he would not mind seeing the gold price revalue itself higher whether it is put into a wealth fund or not.
This really applies to any asset the US owns (including it's seized Bitcoin for example) that might go into a sovereign wealth fund or be used as collateral to get more favorable interest rates on US debt issuances."
As time goes by, it appears that the plan which we will call "The Trump Balance Sheet Strategy" is really what we need to keep an eye on.
First, for the non-accountants out there, what is a balance sheet? Just ask Google AI:
"A balance sheet is a financial statement that provides a snapshot of a company's assets, liabilities, and equity (net worth) on a specific date."
For an individual or a company, a balance sheet is just a statement with a list of all the assets and liabilities the person or company has at the date the statement is prepared. You subtract the liabilities from the assets to get the net worth (or negative net worth if liabilities are more than assets). Here is a simple quick individual example for an individual - John Smith in our example.
John's assets:
Cash in the bank $5,000
Savings - CD's $20,000
House $300,000
Car $25,000
------------------------------------
Total $350,000
John's liabilities:
House mortgage $250,000
Car loan $20,000
Credit Cards $10,000
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Total $280,000
So, John's net worth would be $350,000 less $280,000 or $70,000. If you just look at John's liquid assets he has $25,000 in cash and savings he can access quickly. He owes $10,000 on credit cards so he has covered his immediate potential cash requirements. John would appear to be solid financially and a decent credit risk to any bank for a loan at a good interest rate.
Now let's apply this concept to the US as a nation and how it might relate to "The Trump Balance Sheet Strategy". In recent years a public perception has grown that "the US is broke" and the media and many financial analysts tend to focus only on the liability side of the US national balance sheet (now at $36 Trillion in debt and rising). We never hear anyone talk about the asset side of the US national balance sheet. It's as if all the US has is debt and is therefore perceived as "broke".
Along comes real estate guy Donald Trump who tends to look at everything as a balance sheet. Trump knows that perception and branding can be as important as "assets" as cold hard cash. So how do you go about changing public perception from being negative to positive in terms of the way it views the US financial position. It appears the answer is to aggressively promote the asset side of the balance sheet and talk down the liability side. Public statements by both President Trump and his Treasury Secretary (Bessent) support the idea that this is the plan. We noted those kinds of statements in our earlier article linked above.
If you are President Trump, you are looking for every conceivable asset the US may have (tangible or intangible) to promote and also a branding slogan to change the perception from "the US is broke" to "the US is very wealthy". How does a "new golden age of America" sound as a branding slogan? Just sayin.
But is this just all hype and a branding slogan with no substance? Not if the Trump Administration can leverage US tangible assets (like gold, natural resources, Federal land, Federal property, even Bitcoin) and intangible assets (like free markets, a pro-business low tax atmosphere, power to offer security guarantees, power to put on or take off tariffs, etc.) the way they plan to do. It's not that hard to project that the US could be sitting on trillions in tangible and intangible assets. From the view of a lifelong business wealth creator like Trump, the asset side of the US balance sheet is only limited by your imagination and creative ability to create new wealth. It's not that hard to think those assets might even be worth more than the $36 Trillion in US debt.
Recently I heard Jim Rickards do a presentation where he stated the US has over $100 Trillion in "hidden wealth" assets that can be leveraged into reality under the Trump Administration because it will unleash them by reducing and eliminating stifling regulations that have prevented them from being brought to market before. Assets that locked in the ground by regulations were worth "pennies on the dollar" Jim said. Obviously, the US owns 260 million ounces of gold. The US has a military that can offer security guarantees to business partner nations. The US dollar is still the global reserve currency. Someone like Trump whose entire career has been based on "The Art of the Deal" will of course be looking for all kinds of public/private joint venture deals that could add asset value to the US balance sheet (TikTok is a recent example). I'm sure he is thinking in terms of trillions.
On the liability side of the balance sheet, we can expect the Trump Administration to try and limit the future debt increase as much as possible and also extend the term of the US debt as far into the future as possible. If the US were John in our above balance sheet example, it might refinance the house mortgage and go from a 6% mortgage rate down to 4% rate, lowering monthly payments while the house (the asset) keeps growing in value longer term. Most people can easily understand this kind of personal "balance sheet strategy". All of this would have the goal of making the US creditworthy at the lowest possible interest rates far into the future and changing public perception that "the US is broke".
We will continue to monitor all this ongoing, but it is becoming clearer and clearer to us here that something like "The Trump Balance Sheet Strategy" is in play. Again, we would not see that as a major change to the present monetary system, but rather a way of continuing to extend the present monetary system further into the future without something like a systemic failure or US debt collapse. Will it work? Maybe or maybe not. Only time will tell us the answer. But we expect to see a major PR/branding effort over the next year to try and change the public perception from "the US is broke" to "the US is very wealthy". Just look at the balance sheet.
Added notes: Here are a couple of recent articles discussing this line of thinking from various points of view.
A Trillion Dollar Sovereign Wealth Fund
Jim Rickards - Trump and the Dollar