The buildup to the August BRICS summit was quite something. Predictions of what would be announced ranged from an announcement of a new gold backed BRICS+ currency and the end of the petrodollar to the view that nothing of substance would come out of the summit.
So, what is our take here? First, there was no announcement of not only any new gold backed BRICS+ currency, but not even any kind of new BRICS+ currency. There was talk of using BRICS national currencies more for trade which is nothing new. There was talk about studying the issue of a new BRICS currency going forward. So this was also nothing new from the BRICS and not a dramatic announcement.
On the other hand, BRICS did announce six new members will be joining the BRICS in January 2024 including both Iran and Saudi Arabia. So was this announcement a dramatic game changer? Maybe, depending upon what happens next year. How energy is priced is for sure a key component of how the present monetary system works. The decades long petrodollar agreement whereby the Saudis agree to price and sell oil in US dollars definitely provides strong support and global demand for US dollars. As things unfold, if that agreement goes away and the largest global oil exporters (aside from the US) no longer price and sell oil in US dollars, we may have a potential game changer on our hands. It's what we will monitor here over the next year.
One lesson to take from how this summit played out versus how it was built up is that the norm is that things rarely change quickly in the global monetary system. It's just not how things happen unless some kind of dramatic unexpected black swan event happens suddenly. We have long reported that here, even as many dates have come and gone where forecasts that "the monetary system will be turned upside down" did not pan out. Does this mean that cannot happen? Of course not. There are many systemic risks (that we have documented here on this blog) that can arise at any time to destabilize the system. This BRICS summit however was not such an event in terms of any immediate major shock or impact on global markets. We'll see if Saudi Arabia joining BRICS leads to something more dramatic over the next year.
As various analysts react to the summit, we'll post some links below over time. For now, there is nothing upcoming we are aware of to report on related to major monetary system change, so we'll return to just monitoring events here.
Item #45 (bold and underline is mine)
"We task our Finance Ministers and/or Central Bank Governors, as appropriate, to consider the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms and report back to us by the next Summit." (scheduled to be held in October 2024 in Russia)
The six new members to what I guess will be called BRICS+ are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This article says some analysts facetiously suggested a new name of BRICS + OPEC.
Analyst Reaction to BRICS Summit:
Jim Rickards - Here is a link to the last public article from Jim as the BRICS summit began and here is a link to his latest article reviewing what happened at the summit and what he sees going forward. Although BRICS did not announce a new gold linked currency at the August summit, Jim remains convinced that is still their long range plan with the inclusion of Saudi Arabia as a new BRICS member being a first step in the plan. New article 9-6-23 -- The Dream is Dead.
Alisdair Macleod is a gold market analyst who has been writing all year that the BRICS would announce a new gold backed currency at the summit which would then trigger a major global loss of confidence in all fiat currencies including the US dollar. In this new audio interview, he acknowledges that his prediction did not pan out and goes on to offer his thoughts on why. Basically, he believes China prefers not to move forward with a separate BRICS+ currency at this time. He still believes a gold back BRICS+ currency will eventually emerge.
Willem Middelkoop - In this new interview on Kitco, analyst and financial system author Willem Middelkoop offers his take on things.
Silk Road Briefing Article
This article in Silk Road Briefing suggests any common BRICS+ currency will not happen soon and only possibly after other events listed in the article take place. The article does claim that a potential name for an eventual common currency has been chosen however (the R5).
Global Times (Chinese Publication)
This article in Global Times quotes an anonymous "insider" as follows making it clear what the long term goal is for the BRICS.
"people are witnessing the twilight of the petrodollar" . . . .
"The selling of US dollars and US Treasuries will be accelerated," the insider noted.
Business Insider - BRICS Leaders Appear to Disagree on a Common Currency
Kinesis & Indonesia Launch New Gold Backed Digital Currency Alternative
While no news came out of the BRICS Summit concerning a new gold backed currency, in their latest weekly video update, Kinesis spokesperson Andrew Maguire reports the Vice President of Indonesia has now officially launched it's gold (and silver) backed digital currency alternative to the full population of Indonesia (PosPayGold -use Google to translate to english). Maguire also hinted that more government partnerships involving digital gold and silver backed currencies are in the works in the future. We'll monitor that here in the coming year.
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