With very little happening to suggest any major change in the global monetary system for quite some time, I have not written much here on the topic. That's because we have spent years here documenting the risks to the system and offering input from a variety of leading experts around the world on how to potentially reform or replace the existing monetary system. In the past several years we have noted the ongoing political stalemate between those who view the world from a "globalist" perspective and those who view the world from a "nationalist" perspective. Our analysis here is that they have been locked in somewhat of a stalemate in terms of gaining enough political leverage to push forward their agendas for the future. Since each side has a different agenda for how the monetary system should work, the outcome of that battle could very well impact the monetary system. However, at this time, it appears that battle will just continue until the 2024 US elections. If one side or the other gains leverage in those elections, we might see some significant changes. But it is also possible that the elections will just end up with divided government once again. That tends to negate any significant change coming from political policy changes. So for now, no change on that front from the perspective of our analysis here.
There is however an event upcoming in August (the BRICS Summit) that many are eagerly watching with the view that something dramatic may be announced that could impact the monetary system. Some are forecasting that a new BRICS+ currency will be announced and that it may be tied in some way to gold. There are various speculations on how gold might be involved. Jim Rickards (an expert we follow here and get some input from) has written an article recently talking about how he sees this playing out. He believes that a new BRICS+ currency will likely be tied to a specific weight of gold (rather than fixing a set exchange rate between the currency and gold) whenever it is announced. Jim also sent me a link to this interesting article which he says is a good read on this topic.
There is some intrigue ahead of this summit to be held in August. In the past few days, articles are appearing that seem to put out conflicting statements and signals from various BRICS nation officials as to what will actually happen in August. Fortune put out this article quoting the VP of the BRICS New Development Bank as follows:
“The development of anything alternative is more a medium to long term ambition,” he said. “There is no suggestion right now to creates a BRICS currency.”
Soon after this article comes out, articles like this one carried on Kitco appeared quoting a Russian official as saying the BRICS will in fact announce a new "gold backed" BRICS currency system. Other non mainstream media sources are also reporting this citing the Russian backed RT (Russia Today) media as "official" confirmation. So far, no western media outlets I have found are confirming this story coming out of Russia.
Obviously, a new BRICS+ currency backed in some way by gold has the potential to be a significant event in terms of what we follow here. If it does happen, how markets react to that event needs to be monitored to see if it is viewed as significant or not. It's appropriate to try and understand what will actually happen in August and keep an eye on it.
So, what is going on here? Why are we seeing clearly contradicting statements from various BRICS officials coming out like this ahead of the August summit? We cannot know, we can only speculate as to the reason. Here is a short bullet point list of some possible explanations:
-BRICS officials are not properly coordinated and are putting out conflicting statements due to poor communications between them
-the BRICS do plan to make a new currency announcement, but want to shock and surprise the markets so as to try and hurt the US dollar as much as possible by surprise
-BRICS nations are truly conflicted about whether to move forward with this kind of announcement right now. They do plan to do something like this eventually, but not all members are on board with moving forward at the August summit
-Russia is putting out it's statement because it has the most incentive to try and hurt the US dollar given it's conflict with the West in the Ukraine. So, they hope to try and force this announcement at the August summit by putting out this statement ahead of the summit
-western media want to downplay any announcement of such a new currency to try and negate any negative impact on the US dollar as part of the ongoing conflict with Russia in the Ukraine
Fortunately, we won't have to wait too long to find out what will really be announced and how much impact it will have. The main point to make in our analysis here is that you must view these monetary system battles as part of the much bigger political war ongoing between the nationalists and the globalists. The present globalist US dollar based monetary system of course does not want to see anything seriously disrupt that system. The nationalists see disruption of the US dollar based system as a key part of their strategy to upset the globalist hold on the global monetary system. So, in our view here, you should follow this from that perspective to better understand what is actually going on. We'll follow it here and report what happens after the summit.
Other side note: In our world today, we see people sharply divided on many important issues. In the monetary system realm, those who see the present fiat US dollar based system as corrupt and close to failing believe we are on the cusp of major change that will see a return of gold to the system one way or another. Those who are what is called the "mainstream view" don't see this happening and assume the present system will continue into the future with just various tweaks to the system (such as CBDC's issued by central banks) gradually in the years ahead. Both views acknowledge there is always a risk of systemic failure opening the door for some kind of major monetary system change (which is what we monitor here). But they have vastly different ideas on what should reform or replace the current system. With that in mind, I am linking below to an interesting recent interview between Andrew Maguire and Danielle DiMartino Booth. Andrew Maguire is a well known icon for advocating for the gold and silver markets and Danielle DiMartino Booth is a former official at the Dallas Texas branch of the Federal Reserve. So they come from very different perspectives as this interview illustrates, but they also agree on some points. DiMartino Booth has become an outspoken critic of Fed policy on many issues.
Civil Discussion on key Monetary System Issues
First, congratulations to Andrew Maguire for conducting an interview like this. Here we have a civil and thoughtful discussion of some of the key issues we see today related to the monetary system. So often what we see is different sides only pushing out their talking points in a echo chamber fashion without even listening to another point of view. This discussion is not like that which is why I am featuring it here. Having covered this topic for many years, I am well aware of the divergence of views between those who view a "sound money" system as being important and the need include gold as part of the system for public trust and confidence on the one hand. On the other hand is the view that the fiat US dollar based system is entrenched so deeply it is not going to be disrupted for a long time unless a catastrophic collapse of the present system happens (something both sides concede is possible). So here in this interview I think we see a real honest discussion centered around that divergence of views well worth listening to. In our view here, we need more of this kind of exchange of ideas and respect for different views across all aspects of society. So we applaud this example of a civil discussion about issues that are certainly very important and will likely decide how the future of the monetary system unfolds. In August we will find out if anything along these lines is imminent or not.
Added notes related to the August BRICS Summit 7-19-23:
News reports indicate Russian leader Putin will not attend the Summit in person (Lavrov will instead) but will attend via video phone conference.
Jim Rickards publishes this article again pointing to this BRICS summit as an important event in terms of potential its future impact on the global monetary system.
Added notes related to the August BRICS Summit 7-21-23:
Reuters reports the discussion for a new BRICS currency is not on the agenda for the upcoming summit in August. However, the South China Morning Post quotes the President of South Africa assuring the President of Brazil that a BRICS currency discussion is on the agenda.
Added note related to the August Summit 7-22-23:
In this new interview, Jim Rickards addresses the conflicting statements from various BRICS officials about what will be on the summit agenda in August. Jim's comments in this interview are very interesting.
Added note related to the August Summit 8-14-23:
In this interview, gold dealer Andy Schectman offers his thoughts on the upcoming BRICS summit and the future afterwards.
Just a little over a week ahead of the summit, there continues to be a wide variety of views on exactly what will be announced at the August summit. The two keys we will watch here are what new countries join the BRICS (especially if Saudi Arabia is one of them) and what is announced in regards to some kind of new BRICS+ payment currency system. The views on that last one are all over the board ahead of the summit.
Added note related to the August Summit 8-16-23:
In this new article, former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill says nothing of significance impacting the US dollar or monetary system will come out of the BRICS August Summit.
Added note related to the BRICS August Summit in progress 8-23-23:
The AP reports that discussions are being held to decide about adding new BRICS members including Saudi Arabia. This is a key we are watching here. So far no mention of a new BRICS+ currency being close to implementation in news reports from the Summit. We'll review the Summit after it concludes to try and determine if anything dramatic happened or not.
Added note related to the BRICS August Summit in progress 8-24-23:
AP reports that Six Nations Including Saudi Arabia and Iran will become members of BRICS starting in January 2024. We do view this as potentially significant news which could impact the present dollar based monetary system depending upon what follows next. We'll review it after the summit concludes. Some expected an immediate impact on markets this week, but it appears if any impact emerges, it will happen over time.
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