Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The Fog of War

The Russia-Ukraine situation is one of the global hot spots we are following because it is possible that problem could build into one that could impact the global financial system. So far it is contained to that area and not having any dramatic impact on markets for the most part. But we will watch it just in case it escalates.

The latest event that could ramp things up of course is the downed Malaysian airliner. While we are concerned here with events that could lead to monetary system change, this event provides a good example of how the truth gets lost once the "Fog of War" sinks in.

As soon as this event happened, both sides of this conflict immediately went into spin mode to convince public opinion that the other side was at fault. These are standard "fog of war" tactics used over and over in history. Intelligence agencies know that swaying public opinion to their side is possibly the most powerful weapon they can deploy when war is underway.

It is impossible for the average citizen to have any idea what the real truth is under these circumstances. Both sides will spin and deceive if they think they can pull it off and gain an advantage. The goal is to undermine the ability of the enemy to effectively function. If the public is overwhelmingly against you, it is virtually impossible to conduct a war. It puts you always on the defensive.

With all that said below are just some of the stories put out by both sides so far. If you use an ounce of common sense you can see the obvious spin and slant depending on whether the publication is pro West or pro East. I'll just list a few links to give you an idea without much comment. Readers can probably easily see what I mean in reading these articles:

First, the western slant:

Fox News  - US offers strong evidence Russian forces behind airplane strike

The Guardian - World Demands Answers from Russia

USA Today - Intercepted Calls pin MH17 shootdown on Rebels

Rebels were given anti aircraft training in Russia - Daily Mail Online

Now the Russian slant:

Russian Ambassador calls Militia phone call intercepts fake

Ukrainian SU-25 fighter detected in close approach to MH17 before crash - Moscow

Putin denounces Use of Ukraine Plane Crash for Political Gain

US Intelligence: No Direct Link to Russia in Malaysia Plane Downing

This is just a small sample. Do a google search and you easily find hundreds of similar articles with accusations flying everywhere. Do you really think we are going to learn the truth out of all this? Intelligence agencies are masters of making sure we don't and that the "fog of war" prevails so that the public will either be on their side or at least confused.

Along with all the spin and posturing, we have the speculative theories. Those are everywhere too. You can choose any of them you like, but I doubt you will ever be able to find any real proof that one of them is the full truth. So we don't even try here. We just try to assess how things may impact the financial system. 

As a side note that we live in truly unusual times, I will put links to two more articles below. 

Here we have two men who were admirers of President Reagan (who once called the Soviets an evil empire). Things have changed so much that these men are basically on Russia's side in this war of words. I have no idea who is right or wrong. Instead I just watch to see if the conflict ramps up to the point where it becomes more global in impact.  Here are the comments of Paul Craig Roberts and former Congressman Ron Paul who seem more suspicious of the US than Russia. Times have surely changed. But the fog of war hasn't.

Ron Paul - Malaysian Jet Tragedy Propagandized

Paul Craig Roberts - What happened to the Malaysian Airliner

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