Tuesday, October 7, 2014

New Update from Bo Polny on His Gold Price Forecast

With gold and silver having dropped quite a bit (and fallen pretty far below his earlier summer low price), Bo Polny issues a new public update on his site. In case you are wondering, he is unchanged in his view that gold is about to make a major move higher into late 2014.  Here is the link. 

In an effort to objectively report it should be noted that Mr. Polny earlier called a summer low price at around $1240 for gold so he clearly missed that short term prediction. However, in later updates he explains his reasoning as to why that does not change his big picture forecast for gold. 

This is obviously a very gutsy call in light of how the market is performing lately so we tip out hat to Mr. Polny for being very clear in his position and standing by it. Most people in his business don't put this much on the line in a very public way like this so he clearly is sincere in his belief that he will be proven correct. His credibility will obviously take a hit if he misses this prediction by a large margin.

This will be pretty easy to track. He states in this update that gold will not break below $1180 so that is a very clear line in the sand. He also even provides a short term prediction that gold and silver will rally the rest of this week into Friday.

Either he will be right or wrong on his big picture forecast and it should be obvious by year end of 2014. We don't know what will happen, but we will follow it here for readers so they can see how it turns out.

For what its worth, I did see another analyst the other day who mentioned that $1160 is the final make or break price for gold to stay in its long term multi-year uptrend. So you can watch for those price levels ($1160-$1180) as probably pretty important to the near term direction for the price of gold. Here is a CNBC article suggesting $1180 is critical for the short term. If gold breaks below $1160, we may be seeing clear evidence that a deflation event is underway. If oil also breaks lower I would really feel like we are seeing a deflation event underway. The Fed would be quite concerned with that I would guess.

Added note: Want to read two directly opposite views of what the price of gold will do?

Here is one view.

Here is the other.

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