Saturday, January 3, 2015

No Shortage of Crisis Forecasts for 2015

In this earlier blog post we presented a typical mainstream view forecast for the upcoming year. The mainstream view is somewhat uneventful. It calls for a continuation of what we saw in 2014 with a slow but steady recovery in the US possibly offset by deflationary forces in the EU, Japan, and China. Almost everyone is calling for a strong recession in Russia. 

While there are some warnings in the mainstream view about potential problem areas around the world, the expectation is that these trouble spots will be managed well enough so that another financial crisis will be avoided in 2015. It is anticipated that the US stock market will continue to rally well into 2015, that oil prices will stay down, and that gold and silver prices will stay flat to down in 2015. In other words, nothing suggests any type of crisis is on the horizon from the mainstream point of view. 

Of course, the alternative view that a crisis is still headed our way is still out there. Below we will list links to just some of the alternative view forecasts. These same kinds of forecasts were mostly wrong in 2014. We will see how 2015 turns out.


Egon Von Greyerz forecast @ King World News

Von Greyerz says "2015 will be a year of Surprise, Panic, Desparation, & Radical Change"

John Williams of 

"A Downhill run for the US Dollar in 2015"

David Stockman @ King World News

"This will trigger the next Lehman moment"

John Embry @ King World News

"Things will quickly unravel as we enter 2015"

Paul Craig Roberts @ King World News

"Russia to unleash ultimate Black Swan against the West"

Harry Dent @ Greg Hunter's Watchdog USA

"Oil price plunge trigger for next global crisis"

Charles Hugh Smith on his own blog

"We just enjoyed the last Christmas in America"

Bo Polny on his own blog

"Stock market begins a crash in 2015 - Gold and silver make new highs"

Micheal Pento @ King World News

"World to see a Shocking Crash in 2015"

And even Bloomberg is running this article - "A pessimists guide to the world in 2015"

My added comments:

I could easily find several more articles like these forecasting a crisis will arrive in 2015. I just picked these out to illustrate that there is no shortage of analysts that are respected by many people who continue to insist that a new financial crisis will emerge in 2015. And we do have warnings from both the IMF and the BIS on the record as well here.

Posting these links here does not mean I agree or disagree with their views. I don't know if there will be another crisis or not in 2015. All of these same people forecasted similar events all during 2014 and they were all mostly wrong. There was no new crisis in 2014. There was no major "reset" in the world monetary system in 2014 either. The US dollar was not replaced as sole global reserve currency in 2014.

Does that mean they will also be wrong in 2015? I don't know. But their forecasts are posted right here for the record and you can follow events in 2015 to see if they get them right or not this year. With this post and the blog post yesterday on the mainstream view, you have all you need to see who gets more things right in 2015. That's our job here. To record the differing forecasts and then track events to see who gets things right or wrong over time. What actually happens is what matters to us here and what people should use for financial planning decisions.

Our view here is that everyone should stay alert and informed. It is a good idea to have a reasonable common sense plan in mind in case another crisis does emerge in 2015 or 2016 or whenever. A plan similar to owning insurance on your house or your car. Something you hope you don't need, but are glad to have in case you do.

Added note: A question I get here frequently is how can the average person prepare for coming change with such an uncertain future?  I wrote this article on 01-01-2015 to address that question and offer some common sense ideas to consider.

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