Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Russia and the US seem to be digging in for prolonged conflict

It is becoming pretty clear that 2015 will be an important year in the ongoing conflict between the West (led by the US) and Russia. We noted in an earlier blog article that the situation in the Ukraine is likely to flare up into an early flash point due to economic crisis conditions in both the Ukraine and in Russia. The articles below suggest that both sides are in the process of digging in for the long haul rather than looking for any quick resolution to the conflict. 


Bloomberg: Inside Obama's Secret Outreach to Russia

Since this article is on Bloomberg I guess it's not much of a secret anymore. Notice this western media article paints the picture that the US is trying to be reasonable, but Putin is not willing to listen. Below we will show you the Russian view of things.

Here are some quotes:

"President Barack Obama's administration has been working behind the scenes for months to forge a new working relationship with Russia, despite the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little interest in repairing relations with Washington or halting his aggression in neighboring Ukraine."

“It’s very clear that between the Putin Kremlin and the Obama White House there is a very bad chemistry. Its not a question of simply distrust, it’s a question of intense dislike between the two leaders,” said Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest."

"The administration’s cautious engagement with Moscow is logical: Why not seek a balance in a complicated and important bilateral relationship? But by choosing a middle ground between conciliation and confrontation -- not being generous enough to entice Russia's cooperation yet not being tough enough to stop Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe -- Obama’s policy risks failing on both fronts."

BRICSPOST: Defiant Putin Lauds Crimea Accession

Here is a BRICSPOST article which is more pro Russia, but does quote Mr. Putin as saying some of the blame for Russia's current troubles are due to "internal mistakes". Here are some quotes from this article:

"A defiant Russian President, in his New Year’s address on Wednesday, lauded the decision by Crimea to “reunite” with Russia."
“It has found its reflection in our fraternal aid to the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol, after they made the firm decision to return to their native home. This event will remain a landmark in national history,” said Putin."
"He did indicate that Russia would need to brace itself in facing its worst economic crisis since 1998, when the country defaulted on its debt."
. . . . 
"Putin has blamed the economic problems on external factors, principally the West but has also pointed out that “internal mistakes” have played their part in the downturn."
“The hardships we are facing are not only external, they are caused not only by the sanctions restrictions or by restrictions linked with the objective international situation, they are also caused by our mistakes that have been made over the years,” Putin was quoted byTass news agency."
And finally we have this Russian media article which looks at the whole situation from the Russian point of view. Below are some quotes from this article:
"Fasten your seatbelts; 2015 will be a whirlwind pitting China, Russia and Iran against what I have described as the Empire of Chaos."
"So yes – it will be all about further moves towards the integration of Eurasia as the US is progressively squeezed out of Eurasia. We will see a complex geostrategic interplay progressively undermining the hegemony of the US dollar as a reserve currency and, most of all, the petrodollar."
. . . . 
"And don’t forget that Russia can always deploy a moratorium on debt and interest, affecting over $600 billion. That would shake the entire world's banking system to the core. Talk about an undisguised “message” forcing the US/EU economic warfare to dissolve."
. . . .  .
"Now imagine Russia and China jointly investing in a new gold, oil and natural resource-backed monetary union as a crucial alternative to the failed debt "democracy" model pushed by the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street, the Western central bank cartel, and neoliberal politicians. They would be showing the Global South that financing prosperity and improved standards of living by saddling future generations with debt was never meant to work in the first place."
"Until then, a storm will be threatening our very lives – today and tomorrow. The Masters of the Universe/Washington combo won’t give up their strategy to make Russia a pariah state cut off from trade, the transfer of funds, banking and Western credit markets and thus prone to regime change."
"Further on down the road, if all goes according to plan, their target will be (who else) China. And Beijing knows it. Meanwhile, expect a few bombshells to shake the EU to its foundations. Time may be running out – but for the EU, not Russia. Still, the overall trend won’t be altered; the Empire of Chaos is slowly but surely being squeezed out of Eurasia."
My added comments:
My reaction to the above is all this news seems to indicate a ramp up of tension in 2015 in this conflict. As we noted in our earlier blog article, an early sign of how things are going will probably how the severe economic crisis in the Ukraine is resolved. Someone is likely to take an ugly political defeat perception wise depending on whether the Ukraine defaults or is able to stay afloat and turn towards NATO. 
These articles suggest both sides now see this as a long term conflict with no indication either side intends to budge. The US/West wants to create a global perception that the whole problem is with Russia. An intense effort is being made to convince the public that Russia is seeking to expand its territory and is behind all the trouble in the Ukraine. Massive pressure is being applied to Russia with a combination of sanctions and crashing oil prices. The US clearly hopes that this will force Russia to give in.
But as we look at the article in the Sputnik News, we see clear resolve by Russia not to give in at all. The whole article is about how Russia can hold out longer than the West and the US. It's about how Russia and China will work together to push the US out of Eurasia. It talks about taking out the US dollar as world reserve currency. It says Russia can cut off Europe from energy supplies and "deploy a moratorium on debt and interest affecting over $600 billion". It says this would "shake the entire world's banking system to the core".
If this isn't enough the Sputnik article goes on to talk about a "failed debt democracy model pushed by the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street (Big Banks) and the western central bank cartel". 
Does it sound like to you that all is well and things are about to get resolved in 2015? To me it sounds like a major ramp up in the conflict is brewing with both sides calculating that they can take down the other side financially and outlast them. Will all this lead to a massive conflict in 2015 or is this all just rhetoric? The Ukraine should give us an early signal.

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