Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Why a Deadline for Greece is Not Really a Deadline

By now so many "deadlines" have passed for Greece that it is easy to lose count. Media accounts of the ongoing drama like to run headlines that suggest the next big meeting is the end all deadline for Greece. But this Bloomberg article is probably more realistic. The creditors for Greece have a lot to lose if Greece defaults. So, they can always come up with reasons to allow more time and restructure the timing of various payments. Below are some quotes from this Bloomberg article.


"Greece probably has until late July to come to an agreement with its creditors. Possible delays in payments to the International Monetary Fund shouldn’t prompt the European Central Bank to shut off vital liquidity to Greek banks. By contrast, a default on marketable debt, specifically the failure of the Greek government to pay 3.5 billion euros due to the ECB on July 20, would probably force the central bank’s hand. The Greek government and its creditors are still likely to reach a deal on a list of reforms before that crucial date." . . 

"Rolling over Treasury bills of about 11 billion euros between now and July 20 is unlikely to create a problem, as long as ECB liquidity remains available. The debt management office will probably be able to complete those operations because Greek banks have continued to be loyal buyers of those assets.". . . . 

"Once Greece agrees on a reform program with creditors, it should be back on track to make it through the rest of 2015."

Added note: Reuters runs this article also supporting the idea that Greece will have more time

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