Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Note: Ben Bennanke in mid January 2016 - "Dollar May have Peaked"

In mid January 2016 Bloomberg ran this article quoting former Fed chief Ben Bernanke as saying that the US dollar may have peaked. (See quotes below). So what has happened since? Take a look at the chart for the US dollar since then here. (Since the beginning of February the dollar has dropped from just under 100 to 95.75 as of the time of this writing in very sharp fashion)

"Ben S. Bernanke says the greenback may have peaked.
“Much of the appreciation in the dollar may have already happened -- we may not see much more,” the former Federal Reserve Chairman said Tuesday at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong. Further gains depend on the pace of the Fed’s tightening cycle, he said."
. . . . .
"Bernanke, who served as Fed Chairman from 2006 to 2014, has written about the role of the dollar twice this month in a series of blog posts for the Brookings Institution. In a Jan. 7 post, he argued the “exorbitant privilege” that the U.S. gains from the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency has been eroded by competition from other tenders, including the euro and yen, as well as America’s shrinking share of the world economy."
My added comments: I will leave it to readers to decide if this was just a lucky guess or not. What we can clearly see is the the dollar has fallen sharply since Bernanke made these comments.

Added note: King World News put out this alert tonight regarding a potential derivatives problem related to Hong Kong markets. I don't know how serious this is but I will pass it along for anyone interested. They quote CNBC analyst Art Cashin in the alert.

Added note 2-11-16: As a reader noted in the comments below gold is catching a bid as the dollar drops. UK Telegraph reports this today - gold buyers "queue around the block" in London


  1. Gold bottomed about the same time the dollar peaked. They are moving in opposite directions.

  2. Good point. It appears to be a possible trend reversal for both.

  3. Stocks and gold/silver (but not all other commodities) seem to be moving in opposite directions as well. Confidence in stocks and USD seems to be getting shaky.