Showing posts with label Dr. Judy Shelton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dr. Judy Shelton. Show all posts

Thursday, April 11, 2019

In Money We Trust - A Documentary on Money Basics

An excellent documentary on money and monetary system basics has been released for global distribution by PBS. The title of the documentary is "In Money We Trust?". Readers may think of it as a followup to our earlier article on Money Basics.


The video features a diverse group of experts who walk us through the history of our money in an easy to understand format. Below I have pasted in the introduction text for the video and a direct link to watch it. Following that are some added comments.

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In Money We Trust ?


"In Money We Trust? asks & answers the question, “what is money” and explains how money provides a shared measure of value that facilitates trade and cooperation between strangers. Throughout history, trustworthy money has fueled human achievement from the emergence of philosophy to the high-tech revolution. Featured guests: Alan Greenspan, Paul Volcker, Adam Fergusson, Steve Forbes." (note: Dr. Judy Shelton who we have featured here on this blog is also featured in this documentary)


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My added comments: 

So why is this important?

If you will take an hour to watch the video linked above, I think it will become obvious why this information is important for all of us to understand. Money has a long history and has been used to do much good and to do much bad. The power to control money and the monetary system people use has been sought after for centuries and still is today. 

Please note as you watch this video how that what happens to money can lead to all kinds of human suffering when poor choices are made. The role of the devaluation of the German currency contributing to the rise of the Nazi regime is a particularly stark example from history mentioned in this documentary (starts just after the 18 minute mark).

When things are normal and the value of money is reasonably stable, the potential for very bad things to happen is reduced. History shows us clearly that when the monetary system fails and the the money used by the general public is substantially devalued, the potential for major social unrest and even major wars increases. Obviously, it's important to understand what causes people to lose trust in the money they use and what solutions might best restore order.

When things go bad financially, the first thing that happens is that people look for someone or something to blame for the crisis. This documentary points that out very well as we have done here many times. 

If the people do not understand what is happening and why during a time of major crisis, they may be led to place blame in the wrong direction by various politically motivated voices. This poor choice (placing blame in the wrong direction) then may lead to major unnecessary (but very real) human suffering if the wrong solutions are adopted to "solve the crisis".

The goal here is to try and emphasize that these issues are important to all of us and can directly impact our daily lives. History shows us that nothing stays stable forever in regards to money and monetary systems. The view here is that the better we understand these issues, the better off we will be when the next inevitable major crisis does arrive. The younger you are, the more likely you are to see the next one. But it's important for all of us to understand as much we can.



Here is the 2 minute "In Money We Trust" video trailer





Added note: Following this article later this month will be one featuring a recent update on where things stand with central bank digital currencies. Are they a form of future money? Not yet apparently based on this latest update.

Additional added note: For those who might want to do a deeper dive into some monetary history, this paper may be worth your time to read. One of the authors of this paper is an economist that I get input from now and then.

Added note 5-21-2019: John Stossel features and reviews this same documentary here on Reason. 





Monday, April 1, 2019

The Dallas Federal Reserve Explains Money - A Good Read for Millennials

This blog was created to watch for any signs of major monetary system change. But one problem in this regard is that many people have no idea what we mean when we use the term monetary system or how major monetary system change might impact their own daily lives.


One good first step for anyone wanting to learn more about these issues is to learn some basic concepts about both money and what a monetary system is. I live in the Dallas, Texas area and we have one branch of the Federal Reserve Bank system located here in Dallas. Visitors can take free tours of the Dallas Fed and it also does produce educational materials on these basic issues. 


Below I have pasted in some excerpts from this article produced by the Dallas Fed simply titled "Money".  I selected these excerpts because they relate to various issues I see discussed all the time in doing research for blog articles here. It should be noted that the Federal Reserve is not without its skeptics and critics and some of the statements pasted in below would be challenged by those critics for sure. But overall, this paper is a good place to start learning about the basic concepts that lead to the debates we see about both money and how a monetary system should function. I encourage readers (especially younger readers who may not have had much formal exposure to these concepts in school) to read the full paper. 


I asked Dr. Judy Shelton to preview the information presented in this article and she offered this comment about it:


"I hope this kind of information reaches many young people and causes them to reflect on the importance of trustworthy money."  -- Dr. Judy Shelton

Dr. Shelton is the US Executive Director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and also a Senior Fellow at the Atlas Network.

Further below, I will list some of the issues and debates that I see arise from the basic concepts presented in this paper. (note: I added some underlines below for emphasis)

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Introduction Paragraph to "Money"


"Money is so important that when no official money exists, people often create it. For example, during World War II, prisoners in prisoner-of-war camps used cigarettes as money. All other goods were priced in terms of cigarettes, and prisoners willingly accepted them as payment for any other good. While cigarettes have value to smokers, once they become money, they gain value in terms of everything they can be exchanged for, whether a person smokes or not. People will always find something to serve as money, even with no government to enforce its legitimacy.

What Is Money? Money is anything that is widely accepted as a form of payment for goods and services or repayment of debts."     . . . .


Defining Money by Its Uses

"How can we know when something has become money? One way to identify money is by its uses. Money functions as (1) a medium of exchange, (2) a unit of account and (3) a store of value. When people accept money as payment for goods and services, it is not because of the intrinsic value of the money; it is because they believe it will allow them to purchase the goods and services they desire, now and in the future."  . . . .

The Characteristics of Money


"Cash payments account for almost 50 percent of all transactions in the U.S., so the role of currency in the country’s payment system is very important. Just imagine if you were designing the nation’s currency from scratch. You already know that currency must function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value. But what features does your money need? Six characteristics have been identified: Money must be durable, portable, divisible, scarce, uniform and acceptable.

There are more than 107 billion cash transactions in the U.S. per year." . . . 

Types of Money


"We know that one of the uses of money is as a store of value. But how does money get its value? Three different types of money are recognized based on their sources of value: commodity money, representative money and fiat money."

Commodity Money


"A commodity is an item that has value in and of itself. This can include anything from cows and wheat to silver and gold.  . . . . 

Through history, the commodity that most commonly has become money is a precious metal. Metals have all the characteristics of money. Metals are generally durable, lasting a very long time in circulation. When minted into coins, precious metals become relatively portable. They are divisible by weight or denomination. They are scarce, requiring time and energy to find and extract. Precious metals are uniform because their value in trade can be confirmed using rules regarding purity. Last, by being easily recognizable, precious metals are acceptable to most people."  . . . 

"As a society’s demand for money increases, the constraints of using a commodity often become burdensome. To simplify transactions, people stop using the actual commodity as money, and instead paper becomes the commodity’s substitute. The new paper money is called representative money."

Representative Money


"Representative money does not have value on its own. Its only value lies in the value of the commodity it represents. It is actually a promise. When a government begins printing representative money, it is promising that the money is backed by, and often can be exchanged for, a specific amount of the represented commodity. The strength of the representative money is based on both the value of the commodity and the credibility of the promise to redeem it for the commodity."

"Early forms of representative money were often receipts for gold and silver deposited with local metal smiths. In time, people began to accept the receipts as payment, rather than returning to claim the commodity. When this happened, the receipts began to function as money. By accepting the receipt, a person trusted in the ability to return to the smith and obtain the amount of metal specified on the receipt."   . . . .

"Eventually governments officially converted commodity money to representative money in the form of paper currency. This was essentially a promise that the printed note could be redeemed for a certain amount of gold or silver coin—called specie."

Fiat Money


"Fiat money is money by decree. When it is no longer feasible or desirable to back money with a commodity, governments can declare an item to be money. This decree means that the money is an acceptable payment for goods and services and enforceable for repayment of debts. Fiat currency has no value in and of itself, as commodity money does, nor does it represent a promise to exchange for a commodity, as with representative currency. Its value comes exclusively from the willingness of people to accept it as payment. This willingness is driven mainly by the belief that when a person wants to spend that money, it will still have value— that is, the next person will accept it as well."  . . . .

"Fiat currency has many advantages over commodity and representative money. Fiat currency is not constrained by the arbitrary amount of a commodity. Although this does pose a risk, namely that the money supply can expand without limit, it has an advantage: The money supply can grow and shrink to meet demand." . . . .

"The disadvantages of fiat currency are largely associated with its management. If a regulating body makes too much available, inflation—the general rise of prices in the economy—can occur. If not enough money is available, growth in the economy can be constrained. Balancing between not enough money in circulation and too much money in circulation has proven difficult for some countries. When the growth of the money supply gets out of hand, it can lead to an economic collapse and the abandonment of the money. If people cannot count on money to retain its purchasing power, they will refuse to accept it whenever possible. While the government can enforce the use of fiat money for the repayment of debt, enforcing its acceptance for other transactions is often more difficult."

Federal Reserve Notes and the World


"The stability of U.S. currency, coupled with the size of the U.S. economy, has made Federal Reserve Notes desirable money, not just domestically but worldwide. At times throughout history, countries have held the notes as reserves and occasionally circulated them in place of their own currency. This demand is driven by the perceived safety of the dollar—the belief that it will hold its value and will remain acceptable for transactions for many years to come. "

. . . .

"If the Fed makes money too cheap, meaning interest rates that are too low, more money will flow into circulation through lending activities, and this generally causes prices of goods and services purchased with that borrowed money to rise. When prices rise, we experience inflation—a general rise in prices over time. Low and predictable inflation, around 2 percent, is actually beneficial to the economy, but too much inflation, caused by an overabundance of money, will cause the purchasing power to go down and can damage economic stability.

During the Great Depression and through World War II, many countries abandoned the practice of using their gold reserves to back the currency they circulated—known as the gold standard. After the war ended, a push to reestablish gold on an international scale led to the hosting of a conference in the village of Bretton Woods, N.H. At the conference, it was agreed that countries would commit to a system of fixed exchange rates. The United States agreed to maintain the price of gold at $35 per ounce and to exchange dollars for gold. The dollar became the de facto world currency as many international transactions were quoted in dollars. As long as countries believed that the United States was both willing and capable of redeeming the notes for gold at any time, the notes were considered to be equivalent to the gold they represented. In 1971, President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of notes to gold and ended the gold standard. However, the end of the Bretton Woods agreement was not the end of the circulation of U.S. currency abroad. 

Billions of dollars in Federal Reserve Notes are used outside the United States in a number of ways. Some countries circulate the money as their only form of currency. Some countries try to preserve the value of their currency by pegging it—that is, setting the exchange value of their domestic currency—to the dollar, and many more circulate Federal Reserve Notes unofficially. Countries’ specific reasons for using Federal Reserve Notes may vary, but the dollar’s use is generally associated with its effectiveness as a medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value."

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My added comments: The information presented above is intended to spur the reader to read the full paper presented by the Dallas Fed and to try and highlight some of the basic concepts that prompt intense debate. The more the reader understands these basic concepts, the better the reader can evaluate the various points of view you will find about both money and how a monetary system should function. 

It should be pointed out that some of the conclusions presented in this paper are hotly contested and debated by critics. Here is one example from one of the excerpted quotes above:

"Low and predictable inflation, around 2 percent, is actually beneficial to the economy"

There is much debate on whether or not targeting a 2% loss in the purchasing power of the money people use every day to pay for goods and services is "beneficial to the economy". 

Also, this paper from the Dallas Fed takes the view that the Federal Reserve has done a good job overall of meeting its objectives to 1) control inflation and 2) encourage full employment. Critics of the Fed disagree strongly with that view as you will quickly find if you do any research on these issues at all. Before you can evaluate these various points of view to agree or disagree, a basic understanding of the concepts and issues is needed and that is the goal of this article. 

Over the years in doing research for this blog, I can list some topics of debate I see out there that readers should further explore (this blog provides you a lot of material to help with that here and here). Here are just a few examples:

1) Should the US have abandoned the gold standard?

2) Should the US return to the gold standard?

3) Has the Fed really protected the purchasing power of the US dollar during its existence since 1913?

4) Is a gold standard practical for use in a modern economy?

5) Does Fed monetary policy protect large banks over the interests of the average person?

6) Has Fed policy done a good job of meeting it's mandate to provide a stable value to our money and also promote employment?

7) Can we really just not worry about government debt and create all the money we need without sparking a loss of confidence in our money?

This list can go on and on, but hopefully you can see that these basic money issues and concepts are very important to all of us which is why this blog was created. The view we take here is that the more people understand these issues, the better off we will be.

One final comment:

If you read through the excerpts above, you can see an interesting history of how our money has evolved into the monetary system we have today. This is one of the strengths of this paper by the Dallas Fed in my view. 

Please note how that one thing about money and monetary systems has remained constant over time. People must trust that the monetary system will protect the purchasing power of whatever is being used for money over time. You see this theme repeated over and over again in this paper by the Dallas Fed no matter whether it is talking about "commodity money", "representative money", or "fiat money".

The huge financial crisis which rocked the world in 2008-2009 shook the public trust in our present system to the core. This is what has led to much of the discussion and debate we have featured on this blog since that time. People like Jim Rickards have predicted that due to poor monetary policy decisions and due to the continued ramping up of debt in our financial system, a day will come when the present system cannot be sustained. This prediction includes a view that the US dollar will then lose its global status as the world's reserve currency and also endure a sharp and rapid loss of purchasing power. This is why these issues are so important in our view here. As the Dallas Fed has stated repeatedly above, people must have trust and confidence in their money. Without that trust, the system cannot be sustained over time. What if the public loses trust in our money before we can see and respond to the loss of confidence?

If and when the day arrives that too much public trust is lost, it will become vitally important for people to understand these basic concepts and also the various proposals on how to fix a broken system and restore public trust. 

I especially hope to encourage younger readers to explore these basic concepts and learn as much as possible. Understanding both some of these basic concepts about money and the history of how our money and monetary system has evolved over the last 100 years is huge help in that process and is not widely taught in our formal education system.
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Added note: Follow up to this article with some more basics on money will post here on 4-11-19. That one will feature a video that may be of interest to readers new to these topics.

Followup article is now published here.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Dr. Judy Shelton Comments on the Potential for Monetary System Reform

Dr. Judy Shelton is the US Executive Director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She accepted the nomination for this position after a number of years as Chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy and Senior Fellow at the Atlas Network. 


Dr. Shelton has long been an advocate for monetary system reform which is something we watch for here. While the world is now focused on the trade dispute taking place between China and the US, Dr. Shelton recently offered this comment on her twitter feed suggesting that perhaps this might be the right time to think about "a new international monetary system". In her comment, she refers to this recent article appearing in The Wall Street Journal.


Naturally, this comment from Dr. Shelton caught our attention so we reached out to her to see if she would like to offer some additional insight on it. She kindly agreed to a brief Q&A interview to provide some expanded thoughts on the subject. Below are her comments on the potential for monetary system reform offered for readers here.


                       
                            
Dr. Shelton being sworn in as US Director for the EBRD by Secretary Mnuchin

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Q: The world is focused right now on what some are calling a "Trade War" between the US and China. What would it take to achieve a "win-win" solution and how do you see the prospects for that outcome?

A: It is not a "Trade War" so much as an intense, behind-the-curtain focus on what has truly been happening with regard to having reciprocal access to the markets available in both countries and addressing the lack of a level playing field. Free trade is a wonderful concept and can be most beneficial to all participants--but it requires that there be no barriers to entry, no artificial constraints that prevent potential consumers from making voluntary choices, no forced sharing of competitive technology. So far it seems to me that the U.S. has the advantage in asking China and other trading partners to abide by both the spirit and the letter of free trade. Our willingness to go beyond mere rhetoric on this point underscores our commitment to the ideal.


Q: Both the US and China have used the tool of tariffs so far. Now some are asking if China may be intervening to devalue the yuan as another tool. You recently offered this idea on Twitter (should we think about a new monetary system?) My question is: Do you think that out of this trade dispute that we might see the opportunity arise for discussions on ways to reform and improve the monetary system? 

A: Certainly, I am speaking only for myself in recounting my own long-held belief that a level playing field in the monetary realm is the only appropriate foundation for genuine free trade. The point of my 1994 book Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System is that a new stable international monetary system is required to serve the needs of an open global economy with the goal of maximizing the potential for global prosperity. Tariffs can have an impact on trade flows, but financial capital flows are much more influential in determining economic outcomes. Why do we concentrate so much on tariffs when the effect of differential central bank decisions and exchange rate movements can easily offset whatever consequences were anticipated to be achieved through trade negotiations? 

It seems to me that by identifying currency manipulation as an unfair trade practice, the next logical step would be to define a more appropriate exchange rate system that would prevent exchange rate shifts from undermining the terms of trade--not only for exports and imports, but also with regard to the distortions and malinvestment consequences that occur when financial capital flows are responsive to contrived monetary signals carried out by governments rather than genuinely productive economic opportunities.

Q: What should be the goal for any reform of the current monetary system?

A: Again, speaking for myself: the goal should be to preserve the sovereignty of individual nations within the context of an international monetary system that facilitates legitimate free trade by effectively determining a universal standard of value that can serve as a unit of account for evaluating goods and services across borders and through time. It may seem ironic, but the classical international gold standard was more far-sighted and sophisticated in achieving this goal than any approach we have since had; it delivered far superior results in terms of productive economic growth and shared prosperity through free trade and capital flows than our current mishmash of exchange-rate arrangements. 

It makes little sense to have some countries intervene while others don't; to ignore the impact of central banks on exchange rates; to focus on tariffs while ignoring the problem of currency shifts that may overwhelm their impact. All the while, earnest businesses and individuals bring their goods to a supposed global marketplace to compete fairly--only to be confronted with unpredictable exchange rate movements that can turned legitimately-earned profits into currency losses. We need to embrace the sanctity of sound and honest money as the only logical  premise under which free trade and democratic capitalism can succeed around the world. 

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A thank you to Dr. Shelton for taking time from a busy schedule to offer these thoughts on what she thinks monetary system reform should look like. We will continue to watch current events to see if some kind of new momentum for monetary system reform might arise out of the current global discussion on how to achieve free and fair trade.


Added notes: Dr. Shelton has been an advocate for monetary system reform for many years. We covered her presentation at the Kemp Forum on Exchange Rates and the US Dollar and also her recent paper in the Cato Journal calling for reform. She is an outspoken advocate for sound money and is widely respected by economists around the world. She has also offered concrete proposals on how to bring gold back into the system in creative ways such as by issuing gold backed bonds.

This article will be added to our page of ideas for monetary system reform which offers a variety of ideas and proposals for reform from a broad range of experts. This page is the result of years of effort to collect these ideas in one place with many of the articles including direct input from the experts involved in the various proposals.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Cato Institute Monetary Conference - Speakers Lament "Opportunity Missed"

The Cato Institute held its 35th Monetary Conference recently in Washington DC. There was a strong list of speakers including Dr. Judy Shelton. This Reuters article however notes that the mood at the Conference was more along the lines of an "opportunity missed" to get some true monetary system reform. Below are some excerpts and then a few added comments.

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"The Cato Institute’s annual monetary policy conference on Thursday could have been a celebration of President Donald Trump making good on his 2016 campaign promise to shake the pillars of official Washington, including the Federal Reserve.

Instead, the event at the libertarian think tank became a eulogy of sorts for the idea that Republican control of the White House and Congress would significantly change how the U.S. central bank operates, and an acknowledgement that the political center is holding firm in some key ways."


. . . .


“It is a bit demoralizing to realize that after delivering the same message for decades - that the world needs a rules-based monetary system - we have made virtually no progress,” Trump economic adviser Judy Shelton said to the crowd gathered in the Cato Institute’s F.A. Hayek auditorium in Washington.


“I have not been able to make the case ... I have not convinced lawmakers on the Hill, let alone a sitting president, that it is time for the U.S. to initiate reform.”


. . . . 


“I don’t expect to see invitations going out next week for a new Bretton Woods conference at Mar-a-Lago,” she (Dr. Shelton) said, referring to the conference that established post-World War II monetary arrangements and institutions like the International Monetary Fund.


“I do think we will see more language out of the Treasury emphasizing the importance of stable exchange rates,” she said. “People are willing to talk about this in a way they have not been before.”


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My added comments: Here we have more evidence that it is not likely we are going to see the kind of major monetary system changes we watch for here unless some kind of significant new crisis forces change to take place. 

When I started this blog in January 2014, it truly seemed as if we were on the verge of some kind of major monetary system change. It is why I started this blog and why I have continued to monitor events for all this time. Instead, what has actually happened is that the prospects for any kind of sudden dramatic change have been reduced in favor of enormous efforts to just try and maintain the status quo. 

This is what we have been reporting here for some time in an effort to try and publish the most accurate assessment of the situation we can as we see it. Without a doubt, there are never ending articles, websites, etc. constantly predicting that some kind of major shakeup to the existing system is on the immediate horizon. I am sure articles here seem somewhat boring in contrast to many I see that predict major change is coming right away.

By no means am I criticizing the idea that there are all kinds of potential triggers for that kind of major change out there. I fully agree there are and that a new major crisis could arrive really at almost any time that does start the process into motion. 

Based on years now of following all this pretty closely. I think at least some reasons why that has not happened yet are:

- the 2008 financial crisis scared the existing banking and central banking system nearly to death. They have been in somewhat of a survival mode ever since just trying to keep the existing monetary system we have afloat. While there are many reasons why good and positive reforms might help the present system, trying to implement them in an environment of near systemic collapse was not appealing to those running the present system because there is no way to predict who the public will blame if things go wrong

- while there are all kinds of people (and nations) who would love to see the US dollar dethroned as the worlds global reserve currency, the age old problem of reality tends to assert itself. You can't suddenly replace the US dollar unless you have something viable in place that can take over that role without major disruption to world commerce. The power of the so called "petro dollar" has been overwhelming and everyone around the world is so tied to it that changing that dynamic is not easy to do. Also, there is no consensus around what the replacement should be. Some like another currency like the Yuan, some like gold, some like a new version of the SDR, some like all kinds of combinations of these alternatives. To have a universal standard, YOU MUST HAVE UNIVERSAL CONSENSUS OF AGREEMENT. So the US dollar wins by default because it is already in place in that role and there is NOT universal consensus on what to replace it with or on the mechanics of how to actually do that in the real world

- the enormous political divide in the world (and especially in the US) makes obtaining a broad consensus for change very hard to do for anything, much less changing the system that impacts the money people will use and how to administer it. Trust in governments, officials, etc. is so low that it is virtually impossible to get a solid majority of people to trust anything now (and its hard to blame them when almost every day a new example of scandal in leaders emerges).

I have tried very hard to report what is actually happening here on this blog as best I can with the information I have. I don't push an agenda on purpose because I am not an expert myself (so any agenda I might have would not be worth any more than one my readers may have) and because I truly believe that what really matters for the average person like myself is WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS, not what any one analyst or group of people thinks will happen or should happen.

To make intelligent personal financial decisions, it is critical to base them on what is actually happening. Sometimes what is actually happening may seem somewhat boring compared to exciting headlines that declare something dramatic will happen any day now. But I would prefer to be boring and present accurate information even if that means far less reader interest. If I attract readers with some kind of hyped headline and then report bad information, I am not serving or helping anyone.

Right now it appears that the most likely path for systemic change is for the new Fintech technologies to gradually prompt change over time so that is what I have focused on lately.

I will continue to monitor events at least until mid 2018. By then I feel it will be clearer if something dramatic leading to the kind of major change I watch for here is coming soon or not. If something does arise and I am aware of it, I will surely report it here. 

Meanwhile, I feel the best service I can provide readers is to present the most accurate information I can find from what I feel are highly credible sources so that people can hopefully use that information to better inform their opinions on monetary system issues. These really are important issues and if some day something does prompt calls for major change, the better informed we are, the better off we will be. That is my view on it here and the goal of this blog.
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Added note: I just got back the answers by email for a really great Q&A style interview from Glint CEO Jason Cozens. I plan to publish the interview next Monday after Glint launches their new global currency product. I think readers will really enjoy this interview which describes some really cool new technology that I think can potentially impact the global gold market.