Greg Hunter Interview with Jim Rickards

In this hour long interview with Greg Hunter of Watchdog USA, Jim Rickards touches on a variety of topics and provides an update on North Korea which has not changed from his previous analysis we reported here. Below are some excerpts from the summary of the interview.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Four time best-selling financial book author James Rickards says don’t get too comfortable with the record high stock prices. Rickards explains, “I think the markets will have a very violent reversal in late November or early December.  Let me be specific about why because I never make claims like this without backing it up. . . . Here’s what’s going on.  Right now, markets are priced for a Fed rate hike in December. . . . The stock market is interpreting this rate hike as economic strength . . . everything is set for a violent reversal because the Fed is not going to hike interest rates in December.”

. . . .

"So, what happens if Rickards is correct and the Fed does not raise rates? Rickards says, “When that happens, and I think it will happen . . . all of a sudden, the dollar is going to get weaker, the euro is going to get stronger, gold is going to go up and bonds are going to rally.  So, there will be a lot of big market effects.  I am not talking the end of the world . . . . I am not talking about a total meltdown.  I am talking about a violent repricing of some major commodities and bonds . . . because the market thinks the Fed is going to raise, and they’re not.”

Is there a danger in October as many believe there could be? Rickards says “yes,” and it comes from increased tensions with North Korea.  Rickards says, “We have a window from October 10th to October 21st.  What is the significance of that window?  October 10th is the anniversary of the communist party of North Korea.  Kim Jong Un is getting ready to test more missiles. . . . We have two catalysts.  The anniversary on October 10th and war games (with South Korea) on October 21st.  In that window is when I expect one or more missile tests.  That’s going to be another wake up call to the markets.  The markets are sleepwalking . . . they don’t understand this war is coming, and it is coming.  A shooting war, a pre-emptive war, a kinetic war with the United States against North Korea, I do expect by mid-2018. . . . Kim Jong Un thinks we are bluffing.  We are not.”

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My added comments: One thing I noted in this interview is that Jim laid out a path for the US dollar to be replaced as the global reserve currency that he describes as being a long term process playing out over many years. This is in line with what we have been saying here as well for some time. 

So this is good confirmation that such a process is likely to unfold over a longer time frame unless some kind of new global crisis speeds the process up as we have been reporting here. As noted above, Jim repeats in this interview that he sees the US engaged in a shooting war with North Korea by mid 2018. He has stated in public interviews that will be a likely trigger for the next major financial crisis he has predicted for many years. In this interview, he also discloses that he will participate soon in a meeting by invitation only with the CIA Director and key US Defense Department officials. For these reasons, we encourage readers to follow events related to North Korea closely.

Also, here is a link to another even more recent interview with Jim Rickards that covers much of the same ground, but he again restates clearly that he believes the US will go to war with North Korea by mid next year. So far the markets are obviously not pricing in this as a likely event. But again, I emphasize this situation should be closely monitored. Jim does add that you should watch for any news indicating the US is advising US civilians to evacuate from South Korea. That would be a strong signal that war would follow soon after in his view.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10-11-17: Here are some related news articles out this morning. This is what I mean by closely monitoring events.

Trump Summons Generals to White House war room

Britain makes battle plans for war with North Korea

US Sends second nuclear warship to the area

North Korean cyber weapons

North Korea targeted US electric power companies

Washington Post article offers a more hopeful outlook


10-12-17: 

North Korea Missle Launch Imminent?

Jim Rickards: War With North Korea is the Likely Scenario

This may be one of the most important articles ever published on this blog. As always, time will tell us the answer. Jim Rickards has now gone on record in a public interview with a forecast suggesting not only that war with North Korea is the most likely scenario ahead of us, but also that this event may well be the "snowflake that triggers the avalanche" Jim has talked about for many years now. 

Jim has been very kind to reply to email questions that I may ask him. In this case, because this prediction (and its possible ramifications) is so serious, I reached out to him for some direct input. Jim has given permission to publish his email comments here. Below I have pasted in our email exchanges over time so you can get a feel of how Jim responds to events and how he will also update and modify his analysis over time as new information becomes available. After that I will add a few comments.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First email exchange on 8-8-17 on North Korea:

my email on 8-8-17:

1- your best guess at the % chance the US goes to war with N. Korea (up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons)

2- your best guess as to the timing if you think the odds are high in regards to question #1 - before year end 2017?

Asking this just for personal info if you have time.

thank you,

Larry

Jim's reply on 8-8-17:

"90% chance of war.

Time frame: November 2017 to February 2018"

James Rickards

Later, Jim did this interview with the Daily Mail while in England and also posted this important note in his Twitter feed stating this was the first time in 10 years that he had put forward an actual event and time frame that may well lead to the major crisis he has been predicting for some time. Jim later posted this on his Twitter feed and then a little later posted this.

Because this analysis and forecast is so sobering, I held off featuring it here until I could reach out to Jim one more time to get his latest take. I did that very recently and, as always, Jim kindly replied and provided his best updated analysis along with permission to publish it here. Here are those email comments:

Jim on 9-20-17:

"My analysis on North Korea hasn't changed since I gave the Daily Mail interview, and Trump's UN speech Tuesday confirms my view."

All the best,

Jim

and later on 9-20-17 he provided this updated analysis when I asked permission to publish his earlier comments made in August posted above:

"The odds apply to the entire time frame, not any particular month.

I'd probably lower the odds to 85% (still high, but off slightly) due to complications arising from South Korea. We need them to help us go to war, but they are more in an appeasement camp right now. That may take time to work out either in the sense of bringing them around or going ahead without them. And I'd move the timeline out one month. November seems early from where we sit."

James Rickards

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My added comments: I struggled internally as to whether to publish this article or not. Obviously, the topic is very serious and will become even more serious if Jim's current analysis does play out like he expects. I have had enough contact with Jim to believe that he as much as anyone hopes this forecast will not pan out and war can be avoided. But I believe he sincerely feels this is the most accurate analysis he can give based on the information available at this time. 

Readers should understand that Jim has a strong track record of accurate predictions on major events. He correctly predicted the Brexit vote, the Trump election result, and also provided me an incredibly accurate forecast on what the US dollar would do this year back in March which I did publish here to put on the record. In addition, Jim has very solid and credible contacts which just add to his ability to forecast these kinds of events. When I added it all up, I felt I must publish this information as a kind of reader alert since the goal of this blog is to watch for events that can lead to major monetary system change. Jim says this could be such an event and I respect his judgement in that regard. 

I feel sure Jim hopes he will miss this one and I certainly do as well. But not to alert readers on something this important when the information is available would be a failure on my part to do what I have told readers here I would do. Namely, to watch for anything that could lead to major changes in the present system that could impact our daily lives. This is clearly such an event. I hope readers will follow the news on this closely and think about what to do if the worst case scenario (a war involving the use of nuclear weapons) did happen to unfold.

Added notes: In this recent interview Jim goes into some more detail on the comments posted above, but does not change his overall analysis. His comments in the interview both confirm the above and provide a bit more detail.

This news breaks tonight  (9-21-17) on North Korea and CNBC runs this on 9-22-17.

9-23-17 - Trump issues direct threat  - war of words continues to escalate

9-25-17 - North Korea says US "declared war" on NK

9-26-17 - Janet Yellen confirms Jims prediction that the Fed was tightening into weakness 

In this recent interview (skip to the 14 minute mark to the start of the interview), Jim covers some interesing history related to the so called petro dollar system that shows the kind of contacts he hasworked with over the years and also near the end talks a bit about why he thinks the US will deal with North Korea in a different way this time.

Jim Rickards on Potential Market Risks

In this recent article we noted that Yale School of Management has a blog that covers potential systemic risk and also offers a masters degree in the study of systemic risk. In this recent interview, Jim Rickards gives his latest thoughts on a couple of risks he sees out there at this time.

Jim mentions that he sees the economy starting to roll over in many different areas which could lead to a significant stock market down turn into the end of this year. He also provides an update on the prospects for war with North Korea. In that regard, Jim told me in an email earlier this year to pay close attention to the time frame between November 2017 and February 2018 for the potential for an actual shooting war to break out. Obviously that event would have significant impact on the markets if it were to happen.

Here is a followup interview in CNBC on North Korea

Added note: It appears that both Russia and China are getting increasingly nervous that a war will break out between the US and North Korea. Also, Australia agrees to join with the US if such war does happen.