Monday, February 9, 2015

News Articles from a Reader Here on the US - Russian Conflict

One of the great things about doing this blog is the great readers I have met. Some send me article links that I would miss otherwise that can be important for us to know about and consider. In this post I am going to post links to some recent articles like that sent in by a reader here. 

This reader feels these articles indicate that the conflict we see now between the US and Russia is very real and that it could have impact on what kind of global world order we have in the future. Below are links to the articles with a quote just below. Then some concluding comments.


Reuters - Russia's Putin says will not wage war on anyone

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday Russia did not plan to wage war on anyone although a world order where one leader tells others what they can do would not suit Moscow."
"His comments were the first from Putin since he met French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the crisis in the Ukraine on Friday."

"There clearly is an attempt to restrain our development with different means. There is an attempt to freeze the existing world order ... with one incontestable leader who wants to remain as such thinking he is allowed everything while others are only allowed what he allows and only in his interests," Putin said."
"This world order will never suit Russia…But we are not going to wage war on anyone, we are going to cooperate will all," he said during a meeting with labor unions in the southern city of Sochi.
"Germany's Angela Merkel said on Saturday that sending arms to help Ukraine fight pro-Russian separatists would not solve the crisis there, drawing sharp rebukes from U.S. politicians who accused Berlin of turning its back on an ally in distress."
"The heated exchanges at a security conference in Munich pointed to cracks in the transatlantic consensus on how to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin over a deepening conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 5,000."
. . . . .
"The German leader conceded in Munich, after returning home from Moscow in the dead of night, that it was uncertain whether a Franco-German peace plan presented to Kiev and Moscow this week would succeed."
"But she flatly rejected the notion that sending weapons to Kiev, an idea being considered by U.S. President Barack Obama, would help resolve the conflict."
"I understand the debate but I believe that more weapons will not lead to the progress Ukraine needs. I really doubt that," said the conservative German leader, who has led western efforts to try to resolve the crisis through negotiations and will travel to Washington on Sunday for talks with Obama."
"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, speaking at the same conference, tried to play down differences with Europe, saying he and Obama agreed that no efforts should be spared to resolve the conflict peacefully."
"But he made clear that Washington stood ready to provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself, saying: "Too many times President Putin has promised peace and delivered tanks, troops and weapons."
My added comments: 
First, a word of thanks to the reader who sent in the links to these articles. They are very relevant to what we are trying to cover here. These events (along with what happens in Greece) clearly have the potential to set in motion events that could lead to monetary system change.
The reader also made the point that it seems hard to understand how Putin (and the BRICS) could be interested in allowing the US led IMF to control the monetary system given these comments from Mr. Putin in the article above. The reader makes a good point.
Why this is important to You
Having followed all this for some time now, it is pretty clear we are approaching an important cross roads as to how the world is going to go forward. The conflicts in both Greece and the Ukraine are really just proxy situations. Behind the scenes are the US/EU (west) on one side and the BRICS (east) on the other side. It is clear that both sides are working hard to gain an advantage over the other and both see these two key battlegrounds as important.
Here is what readers here need to watch over time 
The thing to watch in these two key places (Greece and Ukraine) is how the situation ends up getting resolved. Right now, there is no way to tell what will happen. There are two possible outcomes to watch for:
1) - Things deteriorate into full scale conflict and perhaps even actual military conflict. The BRICS led by Russia and China turn their backs on the IMF (because the US controls it with its veto) for sure. Maybe even the UN at some point later. This would be strong evidence that we are seeing  a genuine conflict. It would likely lead to a breakdown in the present world monetary system into some level of chaos. The present system is probably too unstable to survive a major all out global conflict like this. What comes next would be very unpredictable. We could end up two competing global systems (West IMF, World Bank, etc) and (BRICSBANK, East). But another possibility would be the collapse of the IMF/Central bank west leading to a new very de-centralized world after a period of chaos.
2) Things appear headed towards #1 above, but at the end of the day the existing global institutions (the IMF, UN, etc) step forward to "save the day". After the world gets a scare, the BRICS end up working out a deal with the US/EU/West to get more influence at the IMF, UN, etc. The world then moves forward towards something like Jim Rickards has been predicting (after a new big crisis, the IMF steps in with the SDR as a global currency).
If #2 above does happen, we will of course be left to wonder if the conflict/crisis was genuine in the first place or just done to get the public to accept the big changes that result from the IMF stepping in. Readers can decide about that for themselves.
Of course, another option is that things just stay in kind of a stalemate for awhile. Maybe even for several more years. In that case we would probably not see any major changes in the monetary system for now. And the change that does happen might just take place slowly over time instead of in a crisis situation. This could happen.
Right now it does not feel like this (Greece and Ukraine) will drag on for a long time. The events in Greece and the Ukraine feel like they are very critical first clues as to how things will go. This is why these events are very important for you to follow. We will do our best to cover it here no matter what happens.
Only time will tell us the answers. If we ever do get full answers.

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