Saturday, February 21, 2015

No Grexit - At Least for Now (Deal or No Deal?)

Friday afternoon, the news wires were humming that Greece and the Eurozone had reached an agreement. The news came just in time to send the US stock market much higher into the close. Jim Rickards was claiming victory on twitter because he had predicted there would be no Grexit

On the other hand, alternative media sites were quickly running stories to suggest no real agreement and has been reached. Who knows if anything substantial has actually been agreed upon. Below are links to stories looking at both sides of this as we like to do here for readers. We report, you decide.


"The deal struck Friday by finance officials in Brussels should keep Greece afloat and safely in the euro while it works out a long term plan for economic recovery."

"Greece must still come up with a list of reforms acceptable to its creditors, including the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, by Monday for the massive bailout to be extended beyond the end of the month. The list will need to be fleshed out and agreed with the various institutions involved by April. If our list of reforms is not backed by the institutions this agreement is dead and buried," Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told reporters."

"U.S. stocks rallied on Friday, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record levels on news that eurozone ministers agreed to a four-month extension of Greece’s bailout.The main indexes booked weekly gains for the third consecutive week."

"The antiausterity Greek government sought an extension to its loan agreement and on Friday after hours of meetings eurozone ministers reached an agreement. Athens has to submit a list of reform proposals by Monday."

In this interview CNBC analyst Art Casin says there is no substance to the announced deal and that in his view it is only a manuever to buy more time.

In this interview Michael Pento says there is no deal that will hold and predicts chaos in the streets of Athens as early as Monday if the Greek people believe that the government has agreed to the austerity program.

Jim Sinclair's comment on his blog site: "Loot at that can get another short term kick"

As usual, everyone sees this kind of announcement as favorable to their point of view. Also as usual, we won't really know if this agreement is significant or not for awhile (until at least Monday). Deadlines these days are not really deadlines. They are just days that arrive so that new deadlines can be announced. It's kind of like the ceasefire agreement just signed for the Ukraine. Was there a ceasefire or not? Or did the agreement just start a process that will continue on and on with never ending new "deadlines?" Then we have the many "deadlines" the US Congress has been given to pass the 2010 IMF reforms. The latest one is now June 2015.

I guess if deadlines keep getting extended for years and then decades, the status quo just continues to prevail. This is why it is pointless to predict time frames for events to happen. The time frame can usually be extended for a lot longer than people believe. Or at least longer than the attention span most people have.

Meanwhile, Greece cozies up to China just in case. And if you wondered if Greece has any gold reserves, you can explore that question here.

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