Sunday, February 15, 2015

Ukraine: Will the Ceasefire Hold? - A Comprehensive Review

The world is watching to see what happens next in the Ukraine. Early reports are that the ceasefire is being generally observed, but there are areas where fighting continues. Both sides blame the other side. Then you have some groups involved like the Right Sector (pro Ukraine) and some pro rebel groups who may not be under the control of anyone. It may be impossible to get those groups to observe the ceasefire. Here is the latest report from the Guardian on the status of the ceasefire.

There is much at stake for all parties and even the whole world now. If this ceasefire breaks down and full scale fighting returns, not only will people in the Ukraine be at risk, the risk of this escalating into a much bigger war is very real. Both sides have been trying to influence public opinion that the other side are the bad guys. This is still going on. Below are links to a variety of articles illustrating this. Articles pointing the finger of blame in both directions are shown below so you can see it clearly. This is a very dangerous situation because if the public believes information that is false, it can lead to a ramp up of mistrust and prospects for a much bigger war. Politicians have to have major public support to fight major wars.


CNN - On status of the Ceasefire

BBC - Ceasefire "Generally Holding"

Economist (western media) - points finger of blame at Russia-Putin

Sputnik News (Russian media) - points finger at Obama-US - Says they are lying

Russia Today (Russian media) - quotes Ron Paul as blaming both sides

NY Times - blames pro Russian rebels for violations of the ceasefire

Russia Today - Blames Pro Ukraine 'Right Sector' for repudiating the ceasefire
(note: western media rarely if ever mention the 'Right Sector')

NY Times - US Faults Russia as Combat Spikes in East Ukraine

My added comments:

This story is important on several levels. First for the people living in the war zone. Life is horrific for them. They are suffering and dying daily. Next we have the economic impact of this situation. The Ukraine is already over its head in debt. The war makes it impossible for the country to have any kind of GDP growth. The IMF and EU already have billions at risk. They are now forced to pump in $40 billion more to try and stave off a default by the Ukraine. If the war ramps back up, that figure would swell even higher. It's more likely that a default would happen impacting world markets, the IMF, and some EU banks.

Beyond that, we have clear evidence that this whole conflict is a proxy war situation between Russia and the US/West. If this war escalates out of control for any reason, the Eurozone (and perhaps even the whole world) face the horrific prospect of this turning into the start of WW III. 

The stakes for this could not be higher. Everyone will be watching closely this week to see if the ceasefire will hold up or not. 

No comments:

Post a Comment